Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Fun with Numbers

Sometimes it's fun to dream about playing poker for a living. I make over 100k a year in what I do now, so I would have to do very well playing poker. Let's take a look at some of the numbers.

I have averaged over 2BB per 100 hands at $2-4 playing 3 tables at a time. That works out to just over $14 an hour if I assume that I play 60 hands an hour per table. For the 35 hours a week I currently work (I'll give myself 2 weeks of vacation), I make approximately $57 an hour. At $2-$4 at 2 BB per 100 hands that equals $.08 a hand. If I can keep the same win rate at 4 tables that equals 240 hands an hour. 240 * $.08 = $19.20 an hour. So how can I get it to $57 an hour?

At $2-$4 that works out to $19.20/4 table or $4.80 a table. $57 / $4.80 = 11.87 or 12 tables. I don't think that's possible. How about $6-$12 stakes. At 2 BB per 100 hands that equals $24 per 100 hands or $.24 per hand. So let's take $57 / $.24 = 237 hands in an hour. Again I have been playing about 60 hands per hour per table. So that works out to 4 tables at a time. That sounds doable.

The problem with that theory is that I would have to play poker for 35 hours a week. I think I would get burned out pretty fast at that pace. At $15-$30 stakes and 2 BB an hour I could play 40% less. That means 40% of 35 hours or 14 hours a week. That's more like it!

Here is the problem. First can you make 2 BB an hour at 15-30. I kind of doubt it, but I will see if I can find it on 2+2. Second, by the time I am skilled enough, and have a bankroll big enough (300 BB at 15-30 is $9,000. This seems incredibly low to handle the swings of 15-30 and 240 hands an hour) the poker craze may have cooled and all that will be left is the rocks trying to eek out a living.

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