Thursday, March 31, 2005

10th Place in the WBPT

Yes I made it past the bubble unlike last time. I actually was starting to get a little cocky because I think I held the chip lead in the tourney for about 15 minutes.

Here's a brief summary. I started out trying to be aggressive preflop since I remembered the last time was a total fold fest. It worked a couple of times and I got reraised a couple of times and had to fold. I flopped a set of 8's and won a few hundred. I got caught bluffing and lost a few hundred.

I folded pocket 7's to a preflop raise and flop contained a 7. I was a little pissed. Then the turn brought the 4th 7. The preflop raiser had pocket Kings and won a huge pot. It should've been mine!!!

Later I had Ace Queen in the small blind. It was folded to the button who raised. This looks like an obvious steal, but I am below my starting 1500 in chips so I just call instead of reraise out of position. The flop is A-K-7 rainbow. I bet about 1/2 the pot. The button pushes all in. I think to myself, do I really want to go out in 75th place? Then I think this doesn't make a lot of sense, because if he had 2 pair or a set, he would only call. I decide to call the all in with the rest of my chips. He has me covered easily. He turns over Ace-4 so I am very happy. The turn is a 4. Ugh! Poker Stars likes to stall the cards on the all in's which I like when I am not in the hand so I can follow the action. I hate it, when I am sweating the result for me. The river was a beautiful King which paired the board and counterfited his pair of 4's. I double up and go on a roll.

The deck starts to hit me in the head and I double up a couple more times with full houses. With 21 players left and 18 players getting paid, I am in 5 th place. I spent an hour at the table with the big chip leader on my left so I didn't get to steal any blinds and the deck was turning cold again. Finally I get moved and I have the Blogfather "Iggy" on my right. He starts to hit some cards and goes from a medium stack to a big stack. Now on the bubble it's becoming a fold fest again. I have slipped down to the middle of the pack because the blinds and antes are piling up. Here's a critical hand: I am on the Big Blind and Iggy is the small blind. It's folded around to Iggy and he puts in a standard raise. I have Ace-9 suited. Well I could reraise and take the chance. I could play safe and fold. I could call and see if I flop an Ace or some of my suit. I don't want to bust out on the bubble again so I just call. The flop is Ace-X-X rainbow. Iggy pushes all in. I immediately think he is pulling the stop-n-go. If I call, and win I have a shot at winning this tournament. If I fold, I still have enough chips to do some damage. I fold. Looking back, I think I should have called. I don't know what Iggy had, but I could have lived with myself by busting out with top pair. Instead I made the money and folded my way to 10th when I got absolutely no starting hands and no chances to steal.

My total net profit was a whopping $6.

10th Place in the WBPT

Yes I made it past the bubble unlike last time. I actually was starting to get a little cocky because I think I held the chip lead in the tourney for about 15 minutes.

Here's a brief summary. I started out trying to be aggressive preflop since I remembered the last time was a total fold fest. It worked a couple of times and I got reraised a couple of times and had to fold. I flopped a set of 8's and won a few hundred. I got caught bluffing and lost a few hundred.

I folded pocket 7's to a preflop raise and flop contained a 7. I was a little pissed. Then the turn brought the 4th 7. The preflop raiser had pocket Kings and won a huge pot. It should've been mine!!!

Later I had Ace Queen in the small blind. It was folded to the button who raised. This looks like an obvious steal, but I am below my starting 1500 in chips so I just call instead of reraise out of position. The flop is A-K-7 rainbow. I bet about 1/2 the pot. The button pushes all in. I think to myself, do I really want to go out in 75th place? Then I think this doesn't make a lot of sense, because if he had 2 pair or a set, he would only call. I decide to call the all in with the rest of my chips. He has me covered easily. He turns over Ace-4 so I am very happy. The turn is a 4. Ugh! Poker Stars likes to stall the cards on the all in's which I like when I am not in the hand so I can follow the action. I hate it, when I am sweating the result for me. The river was a beautiful King which paired the board and counterfited his pair of 4's. I double up and go on a roll.

The deck starts to hit me in the head and I double up a couple more times with full houses. With 21 players left and 18 players getting paid, I am in 5 th place. I spent an hour at the table with the big chip leader on my left so I didn't get to steal any blinds and the deck was turning cold again. Finally I get moved and I have the Blogfather "Iggy" on my right. He starts to hit some cards and goes from a medium stack to a big stack. Now on the bubble it's becoming a fold fest again. I have slipped down to the middle of the pack because the blinds and antes are piling up. Here's a critical hand: I am on the Big Blind and Iggy is the small blind. It's folded around to Iggy and he puts in a standard raise. I have Ace-9 suited. Well I could reraise and take the chance. I could play safe and fold. I could call and see if I flop an Ace or some of my suit. I don't want to bust out on the bubble again so I just call. The flop is Ace-X-X rainbow. Iggy pushes all in. I immediately think he is pulling the stop-n-go. If I call, and win I have a shot at winning this tournament. If I fold, I still have enough chips to do some damage. I fold. Looking back, I think I should have called. I don't know what Iggy had, but I could have lived with myself by busting out with top pair. Instead I made the money and folded my way to 10th when I got absolutely no starting hands and no chances to steal.

My total net profit was a whopping $6.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Fun with Numbers

Sometimes it's fun to dream about playing poker for a living. I make over 100k a year in what I do now, so I would have to do very well playing poker. Let's take a look at some of the numbers.

I have averaged over 2BB per 100 hands at $2-4 playing 3 tables at a time. That works out to just over $14 an hour if I assume that I play 60 hands an hour per table. For the 35 hours a week I currently work (I'll give myself 2 weeks of vacation), I make approximately $57 an hour. At $2-$4 at 2 BB per 100 hands that equals $.08 a hand. If I can keep the same win rate at 4 tables that equals 240 hands an hour. 240 * $.08 = $19.20 an hour. So how can I get it to $57 an hour?

At $2-$4 that works out to $19.20/4 table or $4.80 a table. $57 / $4.80 = 11.87 or 12 tables. I don't think that's possible. How about $6-$12 stakes. At 2 BB per 100 hands that equals $24 per 100 hands or $.24 per hand. So let's take $57 / $.24 = 237 hands in an hour. Again I have been playing about 60 hands per hour per table. So that works out to 4 tables at a time. That sounds doable.

The problem with that theory is that I would have to play poker for 35 hours a week. I think I would get burned out pretty fast at that pace. At $15-$30 stakes and 2 BB an hour I could play 40% less. That means 40% of 35 hours or 14 hours a week. That's more like it!

Here is the problem. First can you make 2 BB an hour at 15-30. I kind of doubt it, but I will see if I can find it on 2+2. Second, by the time I am skilled enough, and have a bankroll big enough (300 BB at 15-30 is $9,000. This seems incredibly low to handle the swings of 15-30 and 240 hands an hour) the poker craze may have cooled and all that will be left is the rocks trying to eek out a living.

Some Fun Calculations

I am in the business of numbers and therefore I like to play with them once in a while. Sometimes I like to fantasize that I could play poker for a living. Of course I don't think I could ever do this because I think it could get very boring and frustrating very quickly. But it's nice to dream.

Here's what I've figured out. I can play 60 hands an hour online on one table. Lately I have been able to play 3 tables at one time successfully. I think I could play 4 tables if I added another monitor so I would not have to deal with the overlap. Everybody says long term you can earn 2 BB/100 hands online up to about 5-10.

Right now if I play 180 hands an hour at 2-4 with a 2BB per 100 hands win rate, I make .02 BB per hand or $.08 a hand. That works out to $14.40 an hour. Currently I make over 100k a year but let's say, that is my magic number to live comfortably. Since I work about 35 hours a week and take two weeks vacation, that leaves 35*50 weeks = 1,750 hours in the year. 100,000/1750 = $57.14 an hour.

So let's say that I start 4 tabling and playing 240 hands an hour. I need to make $57.14 / 240 hands = $.238 a hand. At 2 BB per 100 hands that works out to playing $.238*100 = $23.80 per 100 hands. $23.80 / 2 BB = $11.90. So that means I could 4 table at $6-12 35 hours a week and make $100,000 a year. Of course playing 7 hours a day would probably bore me to tears. I would eventually have to get to $15-30. Since $12 is 40% of $30 that means I could do it working 40% of 35 hours which equals 14 hours a week.

Of course there are a couple of problems with this calculation. First is it possible to make 2BB per 100 hands at 15-30 over the long term? Second, by the time I get good enough to play at that level and have the bankroll to play at that level, the poker craze will probably be over and the only ones left playing 15-30 will be other pros trying to eek out a living.

Monday, March 28, 2005

Best Online Weekend Ever

Here were my stats according to Poker Tracker on Saturday and Sunday:

Hands: 748
Limit: $2-$4
Amount Won: $488.59
BB/100 hands 16.33

Unbelievable. I was playing my normal game. My preflop raise % was 8 which is a little higher than normal but that's fine since I got a lot of good hands preflop. I was playing 2-3 tables at a time strictly trying to get across my bonus for Party Poker. That has turned into a lot harder than I thought. I thought 7 raked hands per $1 of bonus would be easy, but they only gave 5-6 days to do it. I have to put in a few hours in the next couple of days. Of course I am not nearly as concerned about it now after winning over $600 since I put the money in.

If it wasn't for U of A losing to Illinois is disgustingly awful fashion on Saturday night it could have been one of the best weekends ever.

I have also finally figured out the Player View software and downloaded a skin from another site. Now I have the out odds right on my table and I can track all the players I am playing against in real time. This is really valuable when multi tabling. Party Poker is so big, that I never seem to run into the same player twice. Now I can track them as I play, so even if I don't see them show any crazy hands down, I know how often they enter the pot, how often they raise, and how often they stay in until the showdown.

Here's a quick frustration: You sit down at a table and immediately you see a player make a crazy stupid play and lose a nice chunk of money. You make a note and start looking for a chance to take the rest of his money. Within 5 hands, he leaves the table. One guy I even followed to another table. He played 5 more hands and then quit all together. I wonder if he noticed that I followed him?

Thursday, March 24, 2005

Bonus Whoring

I cleared the 20% bonus on PokerStars last night after approx 1200 hands. They have this little trick in that they don't award you a player point unless the rake gets over a certain amount. I haven't investigated but it seems like Poker Stars charges less rake than Party Poker. That's why 600 bonus points took 1200 hands.

I won $80 in addition to the $120 from the bonus over that run. I immediately cashed out $600 to move to Party Poker to take advantage of their 20% bonus. Now I have to play 1400 raked hands in the next few days to get that bonus.

Here's where I stand online: $308 in Poker Stars, $1,141 in Party Poker, and $124 in pending bonus. That's $1,573. Since November of 2003 when I started with online poker, I have deposited at the most $300. I have withdrawn at least $1,500 for the golf clubs I bought last year, transfers to friends online, and a trip to Vegas. That works out to about $2,700 in a year and a half. That is a hell of lot better than I ever did on my old sports betting addiction errr hobby.

After I clear this bonus, I will focus on trying to win a seat at the World Series.

I am also planning on playing in the Friday afternoon poker tournament at Casino Arizona because I have the day off. Let's see if my tournament game has got any better.

Monday, March 21, 2005

Clearing a PokerStars Bonus

I deposited $650 in my Poker Stars account so I could take full advantage of the 20% bonus they are offerring. So far I have played 638 hands and I am down $37. I am trying to play a little tighter until I clear the bonus and I am playing two tables of 2-4 Hold'em at a time. My VPIP on Poker Tracker for these sessions is only 17%. Basically I have been getting some good starting cards, but not hitting the flop hard enough to win. Hopefully my luck will change over the next 600 hands.

Here is what I have noticed about Poker Stars:

1. At prime time they have over 30,000 players which is about 1/2 as much as Party Poker.
2. Most of the players must be playing tournaments because there were only 7-8 10 max tables going in the 2-4 section during prime time. I had the first time experience of playing 2 tables and having the same opponent on both of them. That never happens at Party Poker.
3. The ring players are tighter on Poker Stars. The pots are smaller and you can steal the blinds much more often than on PP.
4. The players seem more passive as well. I saw many exposed hands after the river that I would have raised with. The Poker Stars players just called down.

I like the software and I especially like the 4 color deck. The speed tables are nice as well. I think you can get 80-100 hands an hour on those tables.

Unless my opinions change, I think after I clear the bonus I will just play the tournaments on Poker Stars and play my ring games and one table sit-n-gos at Party Poker.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

What Is The Best Way To Make The WSOP?

First a general update.

I have been slowly and steadily building up the bank roll. I have $1100 at Party Poker, just over $100 at Poker Stars, $365 in cash, plus another $1,000 in cash that I added because I had the money to spare. That adds up to just over $2500.

I had been playing a lot of the $22 one table tournaments and doing very well. I have also been 2 tabling 2-4 games at Party Poker. I have moved back up to the 3-6 games the last couple of days and had winning sessions both times. I tried to play 2 of the $33 one table tournaments and it was very different. Both tables were extremely tight and conservative. By level 5 (100-200 blinds) we still had 7 players left! I posted this on 2+2 and the responses seem to be that I just caught a couple of tight tables and that is far from the norm.

Poker Stars is offerring a nice deposit bonus and all kinds of satellites to win an entry into the WSOP. I have heard good things about their site and it has run ok the limited times I have played there. I am just worried that games will not be as soft as party poker. In order for me to clear a large bonus, I would have to switch all my play there for a while. I am still holding out hope that Party Poker will announce some satellites as well. Maybe I will write them an email to find out what their plans are.

Do any of my handful of readers/lurkers have any advice for me?

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

Could I Ever Fold KK Preflop?

I forgot an interesting hand I had in Reno.

I was in the 9 seat and a very passive player was in the 1 seat. Earlier I had seen a hand where it was raised to him preflop and he called the raise. He ended up winning the hand because he had King-King in his hand for a high pair. I made a note to myself that if he is not willing to reraise preflop with KK, then only hand he would ever reraise with is AA.

About 20 minutes go by and I am in middle position. I get a couple of calls and then I raise. My opponent is on the button and he reraises me. ????? The other two limpers fold and it's to me. My first instinct is to fold. Would he reraise with Ace King? I call the raise since my odds are good enough anyways. (There were 2+2 for blinds, two limpers, my raise, and his reraise so 2+2+2+2+6+10=24 in the pot and $4 for me to call. That's 6-1 and I am a 4-1 underdog in my worst case scenario.

The flop was 10-5-5 all spades. I had the King of spades. Alright this looks like a pretty good flop. I bet out to find out where I am. He raises me of course and I just call so now there is $28+4+8+4 = $44 in the pot. Guess what comes on the Turn. That's right, the Ace of spades. By now I am drunk with power as I have the nut flush. Paired board be damned. I check, he bets, I raise, he reraises. Now I know I am beat but the pot's too big to fold. I call and check call on the meaningless river. He has the Aces for Aces full of Fives.

Another good read gone to shit because I had ready a long discussion about never folding KK before the flop on 2+2. I guess I played the hand correctly until the turn. After the reraise I really should have just thrown it away.