Time to Move Up?

Results since last post:
O8 $1-$2 -$33
O8 $2-$4 -$3.50
Limit HE 8-16 -$11
Limit HE 10-20 +$293

I sat in the 8-16 game at Gila River last night and it was as soft as a 3-6 game.

This got me thinking. I would have won over $100 if I had not been involved and/or one just 1 pot. I played it correctly, it's just that two players that were hopelessly behind preflop and after the flop, managed to hit their draws. It's bad luck, but a good sign that even the higher players are making amateur mistakes.

I sat down tonight at a 10-20 game on Party Poker. There was one extremely bad fish that I won at least $150 from. I think his preflop calling % was over 70%.

I have 127 days until May 31st. I want a total bankroll of at least $7,000 by then. $3,000 of that will then be used to try and qualify for the Main Event of the WSOP. In 23 days of 2006, I have played 2700 hands online and a few hundred (educated guess) in the casinos. That works out to approximately 130 hands a day.

What limit will I need to play in order to assure myself of winning $2,000 in 127 days?

130 hands per day * 127 days = 16,510 hands

$2000 / 16,510 = $0.1211 per hand

In terms of $ per 100 hands then that is $12.11 per hand. So at 2 BB per 100, that would be $3-6 hold'em. If I go more conservatively at 1BB per 100, then I am looking at $6-$12

My stats in Poker Tracker through 28,134 hands in limit poker show an average win rate of 1.55 BB per 100 hands. In 2-4 hold'em it is 2.84 per 100 for 13,697 hands. In 3-6 hold'em it is 1.2 BB per 100 hands for 12,015 hands.

So my win rate per hand is:
$3-$6 ------ +0.072 per hand
$2-$4 ------- +0.1136 per hand
Here's the math. I wanted my total bankroll to be $7000 by March 31. Let's say it is $5,000 right now. So I need $2000 in 63 days.

At current win rate of 3-6 poker that is 27,777 hands. At 2-4 win rate it's 17,605 hands. That works out to 279 hands a day.

I think the best thing to do is 3 and 4 table at $3-6. Increase my win rate, and play more hands.