The Miracle SNG Comeback

So I took a couple of days off and fired up a $22 sit and go on Party last night. I was just playing one, because I was watching the concert DVD of Journey from 1981. Things were going my way, as I hit trips on the first hand and won a big pot. I made it to three handed and then knocked out the short stack to get heads up. Starting heads up I had 13465 chips and Burke21 had 6535. Blinds were 300-600.

A couple of hands later, I call a reraise on the button with KQ of clubs. The flop is 6s, 4s, 6d and Burke21 pushes in 2471 chips. I can't call and now it's tied.

A little later, I catch a diamond flush with Jc 2d. I win 2400 chips and my lead is up to 12701 to 7299. I run my lead up to 15000 to 5000 and stall for a little time, so the blinds will go up to 400-800 with a 25 ante. I figure I can just start pushing all in, since he has played passive for the most part.

For the next three hands I push all in, but it's easy because I am dealt AQ, AK, AJ. On the AJ hand, he calls his last 5000 with Kh 2d. Of course he hits his King on the flop and now we're tied again.

The next hand, I start with 10102 and he has 9898. I post the big blind and I am dealt 10d 7d. Burke just calls from the button. The flop is 8d 6d, Qh. So assuming that Phil Gordon's rule of 2 and 4 is correct, I have 12 outs times 4, so a 48% chance to win the hand, assuming that 10 high is no good. Heck if I throw in the 3 tens, it's a 60% chance. I check and Burke21 leads out for 1600. I push all in and he calls with 9s 8c. I get no help on the turn or river so now I am practically dead. I have 204 left and Burke21 has 19,796.

Remember the blinds are 400-800 with 25 antes. I will have to double up at least 3 times just to have more than the blinds. So here's what happens:

1. 4h, 2h win with pair of 2's
2. 6d, 6s win with 6's and 4's
3. 8d, 3s win with pair of 8's
4. 10s, 5d win with pair of 5's I now have 3264 in chips
5. I fold 6d, jh on button
6. Jh, 9d I push from big blind and hit straight 7-J now I have 5678 in chips and I am back in this thing.

Eventually I came all the way back and won the final hand when my Ace Queen held up against his Queen Eight.

Possibly the greatest comeback ever!

What Have I Learned From Losing Last Month?

I have officially seen the worst downswing in my brief poker playing history. I hate reading other player's posts about their losing streaks so I will not detail the individual hands.

The culmination of this streak was my trip to Las Vegas last weekend with my friend Tom and his two friends Brad and Ken. I believe the total wreckage of the weekend was down $1,500.

Here is what I believe I have learned during the last 6 weeks of losing:

1. If you start out bad at a table, it's best to just change tables or change games.

I have never been a big proponent of the loss limit camp to betting strategy. If the game is good, you should be patient and wait for the cards to turn. It's all one big session. That is all true, however there are other things that override that strategy.

When you start out losing, you are building a bad table image. I sat at the 6-12 table at Caesers with some of the worst players in Vegas. For the first two hours, I did not win a single hand. These players are not afraid to play a hand with me, because they haven't felt the sting of losing against me. They are happy to chase their long shot draws because it never enters their mind that they are hopelessly behind in the hand. Why should it, every time they play against me, they win? The only way to change this image is to go on a mad rush of cards and punish the table for an hour. This seems to very seldom happen, so I think the best strategy is to get up and find a fresh table.

2. You have to be even more patient at No Limit then Limit in cash games

The only way to make money in a No Limit cash game on the internet is to hope that your great hands, match up with somebody's pretty good hand. There are very few opportunities to outplay your opponents in low limit online NL hold'em. The key is to keep throwing bait in the water by playing solid hands along with a few speculative ones. Once you land the nuts, you need to get lucky and hope someone else really likes their hand. Hopefully your stack has not been eroded by bad beats or impatient play, so that when you double up with your monster, it makes a profit for the session instead of just getting you back to even.

I say patient, because I have often lost it, after receiving a number of good hands in a game and not getting paid off. Eventually you start to get fancy and try checking or slow playing. Then it comes back to bite you in the ass.

Overall, I am going to take a few days off from playing and figure out a new plan. I am probably going to have to drop down to 2-4 online and grind it out in the cash games again. With live poker, I guess I am going to have to back to the 3-6 games to regain my confidence and bankroll. Or I may just concentrate on the Steps and see if I can make a big score to rebuild the bankroll in a hurry. I still feel that I have not been outplayed, however I did notice one difference in my play at 3-6 versus 6-12.

At 3-6, the game feels easy to me. I can concentrate more on the players, and less on how much money I have in front of me. I know I am not describing this well, but I feel like I know what the players are going to do, before they do it at 3-6. It's near impossible to read their hands sometimes, but at least I can get a read on whether they are weak or strong.

Down the Steps and Back Up again

In my last post, I bragged about making it to step 4 in the Party Poker Mini Steps. I played in one and was busted down all the way to a free roll in step 1. Since then I have clawed my way back and I am at step 4 again.

I have only played one since then. I had a chance to do some damage with 5 players left. I raised from the small blind with AK suited. The BB came over the top all in for quite a bit more. There are some occasions where I might have folded this, but I saw a chance to double up and put myself in great position. Plus, because it looked like such a blatant steal on my part, that he could be pushing with a wide variety of hands. Sure enough he had Ace Jack. 2-1 favorite preflop turns into drawing dead on the flop as he flops two more Jacks and I am out. Luckily just back to step 4 again.

What's really going to suck is getting to step 5 and getting unlucky. I think there is no money for the bottom 5 spots. I would have to think that maybe a proper strategy would be to steal like crazy in the beginning. Everyone will probably be playing incredibly tight. Then when they are sick and tired of you, pray for good hands in the middle rounds and set traps. Between waiting 30 minutes for the tables to fill up, and how tight the players are in the early rounds, this may be the winning strategy.

As for ring games.....I think I am going to start concentrating on 2-4 6 man limit games. Possibly moving up to 3-6 if I am running good. The only site that has a decent selection of 10 player games at 3-6 is Party Poker, and they seem to be infested with tight aggressive players. The 6 player games are much more loose.

According to some of the reading I've done on 2+2, the average vpip in a 6 handed game should be around 25%. Most of the games I've seen poker tracker stats for, have players in the high 40's.

In the mean time, I am trying to clear some bonuses for Party Poker, so this is a way I can play more raked hands per hour.

Moved up to Mini Step 4, 1 away from big money

I managed to dominate a step 2 and move up to step 3. Early in the Step 3 I was dealt AA. I raised and my opponent called. The flop came out 10 high. I bet 1/2 the pot. He raised all in, which was a big overbet. I figured if someone had a real strong hand, they would have bet less or just called. So I called and sure enough, he had pocket Kings. The turn and river did not help him, and I had a quick double up.

From there I played carefully. The blinds started to increase and I managed to steal a few. A couple of times, players played back at me and I had to lay down. Overall, I was slowly chipping up.

Then at level 5 with blinds at 200-400 I was dealt pocket Queens on the button. I started the hand with 4868 in chips. 6 players are left. One fold then Jeff710 goes all in for 1110. Dabeers34 who has 3024 in chips, just calls. I decide to push all in thinking I can pick up the dead money from the blinds and Dabeers. It helps that I cover Dabeers just in case he is slow playing a monster. The blinds fold and Dabeers folds, so it's heads up. Jeff710 shows a pair of 3's and my hand is good. That pumps me up to 7688 in chips with 5 players left.

The final four get a free entry back to level 3 so that is a major bubble point. Nobody likes to go backwards. I am now looking to steal a little more when the situation is right. 2nd place in chips is kbooya with 4283 so I have a cushion.

I wait a few hands. They fold to me in the BB. (They must be trembling in terror). On the button I am dealt As 3s. I raise to 1800 which is now 3x the big blind. I win 900 in blinds. Next hand I am dealt Ac 9c. I open raise to 1800 and win 900 in blinds again. Third hand I am dealt Ac 9c again. Again I open raise, this time from UTG to 1800. kbooya raises me all in for 3183. So it's 1383 to call into a pot of 5883. I am getting over 3 to 1 to call, so I have to. I am hoping he has a small pair. He turns over pocket 9's. However, I get lucky and spike an Ace on the turn and now I am pumped up to 13,871 with 4 left.

Here's where we stand:
larryvq 13871
dutchkid52 4675
Oman7 340
Dabeers 1114

So the strategy is to implicitly collude with dutchkid and play every hand with Oman and Dabeers in the blind. Also to put pressure on dutchkid since he will be in no mood to call any raises with the others so short.

However, the next hand Dabeers wakes up with Ace-Jack and moves all in. Dutch calls with T9o in the big blind and loses. So now Dabeers has 2528 with the blinds at 300-600, so he has a little wiggle room.

Oman is eliminated by Dutchkid the next hand so here's the latest chip count:
Larryvq 13,571
dutchkid 3901
Dabeers 2528

with 300-600 blinds, I feel like I could almost just hang around and do nothing. Both of these players have been weak-passive so I should probably steal occasionally just to maintain my chips.

It took at whopping 58 hands before we finally eliminated another player!!!!

There was a point where I lost the chip lead and even was down to 4x the Big Blind, but I scratched and clawed my way back to the lead, because these guys just would not steal the blinds.

When it was all over we were up to 400-800 blinds with a 25 ante. I didn't even know they had antes in the sit and gos.

Somehow Dutchkid managed to finish in the top two with me and we are on to Level 4. If I manage to get a top 2 placing there, it's on to the final level where first prize is $2000.

More 8-16 knowledge

I am really beginning to believe that 8-16 at Casino Arizona is the best level of poker. I played for 4 hours last night and lost $4. The play was very loose and mostly passive the entire night.

Here is why I lost. My pocket Aces had 4 callers and the big blind made it to the end with 6-2 offsuit and spiked his 3rd 6 on the river. I lost another pot when the turn made 3 of the same suit on the board. My opponent rechecked her hole cards. Then the 4th suited card came on the river. She lead into me and I had to muck my trip 4's.

Both of those were semi bad beats that are going to happen from time to time when you play with bad players. My mistake was trying to play J-10 offsuit from late middle position 3 different times. Twice it was raised behind me and I had to call another bet. That's $32 wasted dollars right there because I was impatient.

However, I did manage to play well in other situations where I have spewed chips in the past. I threw away my hand on the button 4 or 5 times after it was folded to me. Usually I would auto raise, but my competitors were probably going to call at least 60% of the time. I had crappy cards and I think all I would have done was dig myself a hole if I had bluffed at the blinds.

Also I won two pots by pushing a draw on the flop and turn. My opponents check folded on the turn. One time I even got paid off, when my nut flush draw hit on the river.

Another small mistake was that I was UTG +1. UTG posted a straddle. UTG was a loose aggressive player. He was far too loose, but every once in awhile he would play a little sneaky. I had Ace-Queen of diamonds and reraised to isolate. The big blind called and UTG called. The flop was rags, nothing over a 9. Checked to me, and I continuation bet. I get the big blind to fold, but the UTG calls. The turn was a deuce. Check and I bet again. Again he calls. I now think he must have some piece of the flop and will call it down. The river is a 10. He checks and I check hoping my Ace high is still good. He turns over 5-7 for a pair of 5's. He said he would have folded on the river, because he didn't believe I had anything, but I could have changed his mind with one more bet.

As for online poker.....Full Tilt kicked me in the nuts the other night. My very first hand of .50-1 No Limit, I bought in for the maximum of $100. I was dealt two Kings. The player to my immediate right, raised to $5. I raised to $20. He called. The flop came out 10 high and he bet $20. I raised to $60. He reraised all in. I am praying he doesn't have Aces. I call and he turns over the Aces. Down a quick $100 after one hand. I proceeded to lose another $60 or so on two different tables over the next 2 hours.

I am still at a loss for how to make money at these no limit games. My problem is that I seem to win the small pots and lose the big ones. It's not that I am getting sucked out on, it's that by the time I figure out I am hopelessly behind in a hand, I have lost $10-$30 while, I only seem to win pots of $5-$10 at a time. I keep trying to remember Phil Gordon's mantra of big cards, big pots and small cards, small pots, but it doesn't seem to be working.

I have been very careful about position and rarely find myself in bad position in these spots. It just seems that players hit trips against me when I have top pair and a good kicker, while the opposite does not seem to be holding true.

Bad Month?

I have not calculated the damage yet. I will try and do that tonight when I get home. I am guessing I am down about $1,000 for the month.

Edit: Update. Bankroll on 2/1/2006 $5254
Bankroll on 3/1/2006 $4310

For some reason, I still cannot beat the $55 sng's at Party. They seem even more fishy since the software conversion. I swear in the last 10 I have played there have been at least 3 players gone by the 3rd level from vastly overbetting the pot and someone making a loose call.

Then, as it gets down to the nitty gritty, I seem to have the uncanny knack of making the correct mathematical shove, only to find one of the blinds waking up with a high pocket pair.

Last night was supposed to be a home game at my house, but I could not round up enough players. So off I went to Casino Arizona. My plan was to play 6-12 or 8-16 and try to win at least $130 to free roll the tournament at 7:00.

I was seated right away at a 6-12 table and the first thing I noticed was that a couple of players had at least $500 in front of them. I think the usual buy in is $200 which is one rack of blue $2 chips. I was in the 2 seat and I noticed that the 8 seat, in addition to having a mountain of chips, was drinking vodka straight.

Now I have read many times that if the table is loose, that you should tighten up a little bit. My problem all night was that I had crappy cards and whenever I started with good cards, it was in bad position.

Vodka man proceeded to play every hand for the next 4 hours, raising about 1/2 of them. I think at one time he pumped himself up to over $1,200. I had targeted him as someone I would like to play pots with, since he is likely to have crappy cards and is too drunk to fold.

I probably played 6 or 7 hands with him and I think I lost all but one. Every time I had a hand, he woke up with a better one. The one time I tried to run a bluff, he caught enough of the flop to call it down. The good news is, except for the bluff, I probably lost the minimum.

In fact one time, I had pocket Kings in the small blind. There were 2 limpers before it got to vodka man, who put in the obligatory raise. I thought of reraising, but I knew that I was not going to push out the limpers and it looked like the big blind was already getting ready to fold. I thought, "the pot is going to be multi way. KK does not play well in those pots. Let's keep it small and see the flop". In hind sight, this is a bad play, since I should be "value" betting a hand this good. The chances of me winning are far above average and I need to take advantage of it, no matter how bad I am running. So the flop contains an Ace. I check, first limper bets, and gets two calls before it gets to me. I am sure someone has an Ace, probably a weak one, so I fold. When it's all said and done, there were two aces out there and the winner of the pot spiked a set. So I got lucky to only lose 2 small bets, but it was a bad play.

The rest of the table seemed to know what they were doing, but played a little looser than my taste. They played suited connectors under the gun and often called with two gappers in late position. I won some money off of the other players, but I just was not getting the cards.

There seems to be a pattern at Casino Arizona that every time that I try a new level, I need to lose my first few times playing. I have never felt like I was outplayed, but that the cards seem to have a vendetta. Once I break through with a win, I seem to be fine.

So the strategy question from last night is: What is the proper preflop raising strategy if one player is raising all the time? It is tough to isolate because people were calling preflop, expecting a raise from him later and perfectly willing to call one or two bets more. So basically raising pocket pairs, was not narrowing the field.

After posting this question on 2+2 and reading the responses, here's what I came up with.
1. You need to value raise the AA and KK hands, no matter how many people are in the pot. They are just too powerful to call with.
2. Try to move into the 9 or 1 seat to get directly to the right of the maniac. Then when he raises, you can reraise right away and not have a couple of callers caught in the middle. This will help to isolate raiser.
3. Feel free to play high suited connectors on the button and cutoff for a raise. These pots will have the odds to call and can be huge if you hit.
4. Avoid playing anything but the very best cards in early position. You will leak too many chips, if someone wakes up with a hand, or you end up dominated.

Who's Cheating?

There has been a ton of talk on the message boards about some high profile online players who were caught using multiple accounts in the same tournaments. Their names on the boards were JJ Prodigy and ZeeJustin. I had not really heard of JJ but I was a reader of Justin's blog and was usually impressed with his writing and his knowledge of the game. I am disappointed because his response to the allegations is just silly. Here are a few of his quotes:

"I have been at the same table as myself. For what it’s worth, my standard protocol has been to increase my number of tables when this happens. As most of you know, I will very rarely be playing fewer than six tables at a time. If I had 6 tables open and two of my accounts were brought to the same table, I would simply open up 4-6 more SNGs. I felt that this would negate my unethical advantage. With 10 tables open, I just play tight and solid. I can’t even remember the hole cards one account folded after the flop, and I’m certainly unable to pay special attention to that table. "

This was just totally stupid. Lets open up more tables to distract myself and therefore negate my advantage. I seriously doubt that's what happened. Especially as he made it towards the last 25% of the field. Doubling up is a huge advantage at these stages and would have been very easy to do.

"All of the money that was seized from me was from sit’n’go play where nothing unethical was done. I never entered multiple accounts into the same sit’n’go, never colluded with anyone, never soft played anyone and never chip dumped with anyone.The other accounts I used never had any big MTT scores. Combined, I am pretty sure they were all long-term losers in the few MTT’s they played. Despite this, almost $100,000 was seized from my accounts."

Just because you were smart enough to cash out the Multi Table Tournament Winnings doesn't mean you are justified in keeping it. I think he's lucky that Party Poker doesn't go after more of his money.

"I have one account. That account is named ZeeJustin. My brother also has an account named Bernard61 (formerly jwilson55), and I have used that account quite often. No where in Party’s rules does it say you cannot use someone else’s account. I’m sure many of you have used friends’ accounts before, and there is nothing wrong with this. People will often take over MTT’s for friends that have unforeseen obligations.

I do think what I’ve done is unethical, and I certainly regret doing it, however, I need to point out that no where in Party’s rules is it stated that you cannot enter multiple accounts into the same tournament. Not only do they not forbid it, but to open multiple clients on the same PC, all you have to do is click the icon a bit more rapidly than normal. Great work PartyPoker."

His reading comprehension must be at a 3rd grade level. It says in the agreement that the name on your account must match your true and legal name. You are prohibited from holding more than one account.

Just because it doesn't say you are not allowed to enter multiple accounts in a tournament does not make it legal. The line of not allowing multiple accounts to begin with, makes using them for any purpose illegal.

I am extremely happy that Party Poker is cracking down on the cheaters and making them pay. I would hope they are able to return money to some of the other players who were hurt by the cheating, but that is probably too much to ask.

I am amazed that these players were able to open multiple accounts at the same time from the same IP address. I have tried to log into the same table from different skins before and been blocked, so I figured it was impossible. Apparently not, but hopefully they have fixed it now.

If I lucky, the tournaments will now be softer and I can make a big score.

Working On The Party Poker Steps

Results since last post:
Ring Games: -35
Tourneys: -217

I was pretty busy last week so I did not get to play as much as I would have liked. A couple of nights ago, I was bored and decided to look at the Party Poker Steps again.

I decided to pursue the Mini Steps which is a 5 round process. The first round is $5+1. You need to win to advance. 2nd through 5th place get to play again for free.

I fired up two level one steps. I won one and finished second in the other. I played the second round. In round 2, you need to finish in the top two to advance. I managed to win again and so it's on to round 3.

Last night I played my round 3 match. I was running well, catching good cards, and picking off a couple of bluffs. It was down to 3 handed. The top 2 advance. The third place player was down to 2.5 BB while me and the other guy had around 10 BB each. He went all in. Me and the other big stack called and tried to check it down. The small stack woke up with a big hand and he tripled up. Uh oh.

It went back and forth a few more times and eventually it was folded to me on the small blind and I pushed in. The Big Blind called and I was dominated. Out in third, so I am still at level 3.
I feel like I made the correct mathematical plays, but it just did not work out. My luck ran out.

If I get to level 5, 1st place is $4,000. That is a reeeeaaaaal nice pay day. And that is just the mini steps. I am going to investigate the big steps and see if this might be an easy way to run up a cash balance for the World Series of Poker.

Of course the problem with the steps is that while you are playing these games, you are not earning any money until the final step.

4 of a Kind and I Get Paid

Here's the hand history from a great 4 of a kind hand on Full Contact Poker:

Texas Hold'em $3-$6 (Real Money), #85,400,113 Table Colon, 4 Feb 2006 7:31 PM ET

Seat 1: Claudin5. ($138 in chips)
Seat 2: rockyroad11 ($358.60 in chips)
Seat 3: curtis1120x ($61.70 in chips)
Seat 4: ScoobD ($570.80 in chips)
Seat 5: JaBBaTheNuTT ($59.50 in chips)
Seat 6: larryvq0 ($106.65 in chips)
Seat 7: Volscam ($81.45 in chips)
Seat 8: mrvkp8 ($79.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Miss_Kandy ($313.05 in chips)
Seat 10: Jonnylove8 ($106.90 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS Miss_Kandy posts blind ($1.50), Jonnylove8 posts blind ($3).

PRE-FLOP Claudin5. folds, rockyroad11 calls $3, curtis1120x bets $6, ScoobD folds, JaBBaTheNuTT folds, larryvq0 calls $6, Volscam bets $9, mrvkp8 bets $12, Miss_Kandy folds, Jonnylove8 folds, rockyroad11 calls $9, curtis1120x calls $6, larryvq0 calls $6, Volscam calls $3.

FLOP [board cards 2C,6S,9S ]

rockyroad11 checks, curtis1120x checks, larryvq0 bets $3, Volscam calls $3, mrvkp8 bets $6, rockyroad11 folds, curtis1120x bets $9, larryvq0 bets $9, Volscam calls $9, mrvkp8 calls $6, curtis1120x calls $3.

TURN [board cards 2C,6S,9S,8D ]

curtis1120x checks, larryvq0 bets $6, Volscam calls $6, mrvkp8 bets $12, curtis1120x folds, larryvq0 bets $12, Volscam calls $12, mrvkp8 calls $6.

RIVER [board cards 2C,6S,9S,8D,6C ]

larryvq0 bets $6, Volscam bets $12, mrvkp8 folds, larryvq0 bets $12, Volscam calls $6.

SHOWDOWN larryvq0 shows [ 6H,6D ] Volscam mucks cards [ 8H,7H ] larryvq0 wins $199.50.

SUMMARY
Dealer: mrvkp8 Pot: $202.50, (including rake: $3)
Claudin5., loses $0
rockyroad11, loses $12
curtis1120x, loses $24
ScoobD, loses $0
JaBBaTheNuTT, loses $0
larryvq0, bets $60, collects $199.50, net $139.50
Volscam, loses $60
mrvkp8, loses $42
Miss_Kandy, loses $1.50
Jonnylove8, loses $3

So Volscam goes crazy and reraises with a medium suited connector preflop. He continues to pump the pot for his draw, even though he could lose to a flush and after the turn it is no longer the nuts. Then he tries to raise the river. There is something to be said for doing everything you can to win the big pots, but does he really expect me to fold for one more after all the aggression I have shown the entire hand????

Another Small Cash In Tournament

Results since last post:
Ring games: +487
Tourneys: +354

I played in a $11 buy in multi table at Full Tilt this morning. Out of 280 players I finished 10th. I made a handful of mistakes during the tournament, but none of them were fatal. My total profit was only $25.

Basically the key to going far in these tournaments seems to be to double or triple up early. Then win the races when small stacks go all in against you. Then if you still have 10-15 x the big blind within 10 of the money, just steal the blinds every time it's folded to you.

I had players seriously irritated with me at the table for stealing so much. They almost never played back at me. When they finally did, I either had enough sense to lay it down, or they were so short stacked that it would not make a dent, if I lost.

In a further answer to the previous post about moving up......I think from now on, I am going to keep playing in the 8-16 levels at the brick and mortar casinos. I had another session, this time at Casino Arizona. Again the players were not that good. I lost $100, but most of it was due to a brief 5 minute period of tilt. I really get the urge for fancy play syndrome at the higher levels, thinking that I need to play "better" against the so called stronger players. This seems to get me in a lot of trouble. Especially when I try to get creative defending my blinds.

For the most part, everyone chops if it is folded to the big blind. It's not my first choice, but why irritate the other players. I will raise with damn near any 2 if it's folded to me on the button. If I defend in the small blind, I will usually raise to try and isolate the button. If I am in the Big Blind, then I will usually just call. From there I think I need to only move forward if I flop top or second pair, or if I have a decent draw, or a strong Ace. I have pissed away too much money trying to bluff with absolutely nothing.

Time to Move Up?

Results since last post:
O8 $1-$2 -$33
O8 $2-$4 -$3.50
Limit HE 8-16 -$11
Limit HE 10-20 +$293

I sat in the 8-16 game at Gila River last night and it was as soft as a 3-6 game.

This got me thinking. I would have won over $100 if I had not been involved and/or one just 1 pot. I played it correctly, it's just that two players that were hopelessly behind preflop and after the flop, managed to hit their draws. It's bad luck, but a good sign that even the higher players are making amateur mistakes.

I sat down tonight at a 10-20 game on Party Poker. There was one extremely bad fish that I won at least $150 from. I think his preflop calling % was over 70%.

I have 127 days until May 31st. I want a total bankroll of at least $7,000 by then. $3,000 of that will then be used to try and qualify for the Main Event of the WSOP. In 23 days of 2006, I have played 2700 hands online and a few hundred (educated guess) in the casinos. That works out to approximately 130 hands a day.

What limit will I need to play in order to assure myself of winning $2,000 in 127 days?

130 hands per day * 127 days = 16,510 hands

$2000 / 16,510 = $0.1211 per hand

In terms of $ per 100 hands then that is $12.11 per hand. So at 2 BB per 100, that would be $3-6 hold'em. If I go more conservatively at 1BB per 100, then I am looking at $6-$12

My stats in Poker Tracker through 28,134 hands in limit poker show an average win rate of 1.55 BB per 100 hands. In 2-4 hold'em it is 2.84 per 100 for 13,697 hands. In 3-6 hold'em it is 1.2 BB per 100 hands for 12,015 hands.

So my win rate per hand is:
$3-$6 ------ +0.072 per hand
$2-$4 ------- +0.1136 per hand
Here's the math. I wanted my total bankroll to be $7000 by March 31. Let's say it is $5,000 right now. So I need $2000 in 63 days.

At current win rate of 3-6 poker that is 27,777 hands. At 2-4 win rate it's 17,605 hands. That works out to 279 hands a day.

I think the best thing to do is 3 and 4 table at $3-6. Increase my win rate, and play more hands.

Tournament Disaster and Weekend of Tilt

Results since last post
Tourneys:
Heads Up +19
1 Table -110
2 Table -22
4 Table -350
5 Table -22
Multi -44

Total -529

Ring Games:
1-2 NL -243
3-6 limit +188

Total -55


As you can see from the title of this post, my weekend of poker did not go well.

The tournament at Jeff's started with 4 tables of 8. 2000 in chips and 25-50 blinds. I happened to get seated at a table where I knew a couple of the players who were decent so I decided to play ultra conservative and look to value bet when I could. I absolutely did not want to steal any pots in the beginning. It just didn't seem worth the risk.

Things were looking up after about the third hand when there were 3 guys in a hand. No raises before the flop, no bets on the flop and turn. The river is a blank and one player bets about 1/2 the pot. It looks like a steal but who knows. Another player calls. The first bettor had Jack high. Ok he took a stab and lost, I can get on board with that strategy. The caller turned over Jack high with a worse kicker! Wow! Maybe I can make some money on this table.

Later I was dealt pocket 8's and I called after a couple of limpers, hoping to flop a set. Chris raised on the button. Everyone folded except me. The flop was K-7-3. I check and he checks. The turn was a 5. This time I figure I am good so I bet about 1/2 the pot. Surprisingly Chris calls. We have played each other in past tournaments so I feel like he knows I am a good player. The river is an Ace. I am in no mood to play a big pot so I check and he checks behind. Now I am ready to rake in the pot and he turns over King-Jack. Huh? I am still wondering why he checked behind on the flop and only called the turn.

A little later, I got back above my starting chips when I rivered the nut flush against Steve's straight. Then my cards went stone dead. Nobody at my table was really making any progress. They seemed to be just shifting the chips around.

Finally I was down to around 8-9 times the blinds and I was dealt Ace-King offsuit. There was a small early raise and I reraised all in. Everyone else folded and the initial raiser called with A-10. Maybe this is where I make my move. A ten hits the flop and I fail to improve.

I rebuy for $100 and get moved to a different table. I am to the right of Brian, who plays up to 60-120 in the casino. I don't think he is that great a player, but I do know that he is better than most in the tournament. I am busy getting blinded down when the break comes. Now I can add another $1000 which I do. I look around at all the different chip stacks and it looks like the highest is only around 4,000. So if I can get up around 2,000 then double up, I will be in the thick of things.

The first or second hand after the break I am dealt pocket 8's in early position. I raise 3x the blind and Brian is my only caller. The blinds were high enough, that my only real move on the flop was going to be all in. I figure about 90% of the possible flops, I am going to move in anyway because Brian probably thinks I have a high pair.

The flop is 6-7-9 rainbow. Perfect! I move in and Brian can't get his chips in fast enough. He has pocket Aces. So preflop I am 4-1 dog. After the money goes in, I have 10 outs times 4 for a 40% chance. I'll take it I guess. Well I finally get lucky and my 5 hits on the river to crack his Aces. Brian was the chip leader too, so he was not very happy.

Now I have some room to maneuver. I try to steal the blinds with K-9 suited from the cut off. The big blind moves all in and I fold. Another rotation and again I raise with Ace King. The big blind moves all in. I have him covered by a good amount so I call. He has Ace Queen. Queen on the flop and no help for me, so now I am short stacked again.

It was down hill from there as I became totally desperate after another all in loss with Ace King. My final hand, I had pocket tens and lost to someone with pocket Queens.

In reviewing my play afterwards, there really wasn't much I could do. The pocket 10's were the best made hand I had the whole day. I never had anything better than a pair except when I rivered the straight against Brian or the rivered flush against Steve. There was never a time when I could set any traps to let the bad players fall into them.

I played a couple of winner take all $20 sit n go's after the tournament and busted out in the middle of both, so the total day was a loss of $390.

On Sunday I was supposed to to to Curtis' house and play poker and watch football. Since I was so disgusted with my play the last time I was there for the National Championship game, I decided to fire up Full Tilt and play a couple of tables of short handed No Limit with 1-2 blinds. I was trying to remember Phil Gordon's advice from the book I listened to in the morning. It didn't help.

Every time I had a decent hand, someone would raise a big amount representing at least two pair or a set. I on the other hand could not seem to flop a set to save my life or any other hand better than a pair.

Tilt was in full force when I a called a 2x raise from the button with Ace-9 suited. The flop was 10-9-3. I checked and he bet about 1/3 of the pot. I decided he's bluffing and I am tired of being pushed around, so I triple his bet and raise. He reraises me to put me all in for about $40 more. Out of frustration and not rational thought, I call. Amazingly he shows pocket 10'
s for the nuts. So that was a quick $250.

I get to Curtis' house and there are not enough people to play poker. During the boring second half of the game, I fire up a SNG at Party Poker on his laptop. Early in the sit, I get 4 queens. I win a few hundred but don't double up. A little later I am dealt 10-9 suited utg. I decide to play a little loose and call. Nobody raises but there are 4 players in the pot. The flop is 9 high. I fire out a small bet to see where I am at. The button vastly over bets the pot and goes all in. I am tempted to call, but decide it's too early to risk 1/2 my stack with a pair of 10's. He shows 9-7 suited, so I could have been in a commanding position.

Then, the cou de gras of my bad luck. I have Jack-7 on the big blind. No body raises and the small blind completes. The small blind is the chip leader. There are two 7's on the flop so I have 3 7's with a Jack kicker. I slow play the flop and check it through. The turn is a blank and the small blind bets small. I raise. He reraises me all in. I think I have him and call immediately. He has the case 7 along with an Ace kicker. Fuck!

I play a few more sits at home and eventually score a second place. Then I fire up the FCP site and win another $120 to stem the bleeding. Overall, a very bad weekend. I tried to explain to Michele why I was so bummed and I don't know if she quite understood.

I was really looking forward to the tournament on Saturday. I felt like I was hot going in, and I was going to win. I played the best I could and the cards did not fall my way. After that, I really wanted to score a win against my friends on Sunday, but didn't even get to play. So basically I was frustrated and the money loss stung a bit as well.

I guess I'll stick with Full Contact. I can't seem to lose there, lately. (Hope I don't jinx myself).

Phil Gordon's Green Book and Jeff's Tourney

Results since last post on 1/17/06
3-6 -$68.40
NL 1-2 +$111
NL $55 SNG's 4 played +$95

-----------------------------------------------------
I downloaded Phil Gordon's "Little Green Book of Poker" to my Ipod a couple of days ago. So far I am really impressed. No Limit cash games and big Multi Table Tournaments are easily my worst games. There are plenty of books that relate to Tournaments but not too many that discuss cash game strategies. This book definitely fits the bill.

I am only 1/2 way through it, but what I enjoy the most are the scripts that he runs in his head before he makes a decision. This is definitely something I need to commit to memory.

It also clarified my thinking on medium to low pocket pairs. It's ok to call a raise in position with these hands if it costs less than 12% of your stack. The idea being that if you hit your set and your opponent has more money than you, then you could theoretically double your stack. This makes up for the 7 out of 8 times that you do not hit your set.

Phil's philosophy on betting with a paired board is also interesting. If he raised before the flop and took control of the hand, then if there are only 1 or 2 players in the pot, usually the first player to bet will win the pot. It's hard for another player to hit the flop with only 2 cards in play instead of 3.

I also found it interesting that if he flops a flush, that he likes to play it fast even if he does not have the nut flush. If he thinks someone has the Ace or nut flush draw and he's already flopped it, then he wants to make his opponent pay to draw at it. They think they have 9 outs but they really only have 7 so you can force your opponent to make a costly mistake. He believes that the chances of someone flopping a flush when you flop a flush are so slim that he will go broke with the hand.

In addition to reading or listening to Phil's book, I have joined Thomas Keller's website and his "Thunder Squadron". He has taken it upon himself to set up a new website designed to help other players improve their game. 2+2 has become a little weak lately, so I am glad to have a new resource. Thomas seems to be active on the site so it's good to get a pro's feedback once in a while. Plus, since he grew up in Chandler, a lot of the posters on the site live in Arizona so I have a chance to make some new local poker friends. Since one of the requirements to join his squadron is to keep detailed records, so I am recommitting myself to keeping Poker Tracker updated and I will lead off every blog with my results since the previous blog.

Finally, Jeff is having another big poker tournament. I have played in 3 and cashed in 2 so I am really looking forward to it. I still think he should lower the buy in to get more players, but $150 does keep out some of the riff raff. The problem is he only gets about 30 players. If you rebuy once, then you have to make the top 5 just to break even. I think I am ready to make a big score.

I Think I Have Found The Sweet Spot

I have been playing a lot of 3-6 Hold'em on Full Contact Poker lately. This is Daniel Negreanu's skin for Poker Room. They gave me a great bonus to work off after I deposited $650. I think it was around $350. I have earned over $150 so far in the bonus plus another $250 or so in table winnings.

The site is pretty cool and the hands seem to move faster than Party Poker. There have been some software glitches like part of my screen going dark or the note taking function not working, but overall I am pretty happy with the site.

I have been doing quite well because I can make Poker Tracker work in conjunction with the live games. I have set up PT to download the hand histories every 5 minutes. After 20 minutes or so I have 20 or more hands on everyone in the table. FCP allows you to color code your notes so it makes it really easy to identify which players are Tight Aggro, Loose Aggro, or Passive fish. With only 16,000 players, there seem to be a lot of the same players that show up at the same time and a lot of them are easy money. Even the waiting lists are usually not too long. I will scan the open games and look for tables where the pots are at least 5 big bets and put myself on the list. After 30 minutes I can tell whether a game is fat or not just by the stats. My only issue is that the site is that it's not big enough to support playing 3 or more tables at one time. I don't think I could find enough healthy games plus it would probably move too quick for me.

I have tried using Poker Tracker with Party Poker and PT always seems to crash after 15 minutes. It's been great to get to use it again.

I played a couple of Sit-n-Go's on Full Tilt last night as well. I bought into a $55 and a $33. In the $55 I got a hold of some chips early and basically cruised into the final 3. Both of the players seemed decent so I knew this part would be a dog fight. I lost a good chunk of chips slow playing top two pair and a flush hit the river. The leader went all in and I took too long to call so the site folded me. I asked in the chat if he had the flush and he said he did. Good thing I timed out I guess? Now I was down to about 6-7 big blinds. I was dealt 55 on the big blind. The button made a 3x raise from the button which I took as weak. She was in the 10 BB range where the all in move made more sense. She had played timid in the past, so it looked like a steal. I was short enough that it didn't matter as long as the small blind folded, which he did. I reraised all in and the button called in a shot with AA. Another excellent read by me!!! It worked out well for me though as I caught another 5 on the turn and put her down to a very small stack.

Once it got to heads up, my opponent was coming over the top of me on my raises from the small blind. I had to fold the first few. Then I won a bunch of chips when I pushed in the turn with Ace high. He had an open ended straight draw and luckily he missed.

Now he was playing the all in game. He took back the chip lead and I had had enough. I raised 3x the blind from the small blind with A-2. He raised all in again. This time I called and he had King X unsuited. Unfortunately he hit the X on the turn and I was done the next hand.

The 33 was a rock fest. No one seemed to raise and I never got any action whenever I raised. I finally made it down to 4 handed. I got caught stealing once or twice so my stack was down to 4x the blind. The guy on my left was just as short and the other two had comfortable stacks. In the small blind, I was dealt 5-2 offsuit. The math says push so I did, hoping the other shortie would continue to play tight. He waited unti the last second and he called with King-4. I hit a 2 on the flop, but he hit the 4 on the turn and the King on the river and busted me on the bubble.

I know it was only 2 games, but they seemed a heck of a lot softer than the $55's at Party Poker. I will have to give them a few more chances and see what happens.

Review of Home Game, Heads Up, Ft McDowell

The Rose Bowl was a great game. I especially enjoyed Bill telling me that I "have to pick your spots" when it comes to sports betting. His $300 bet on the Trojans went down in flames. Yet another great example of why I seldom bet on sports anymore. It's just too damn frustrating.

When I arrived after fighting traffic for an hour, everyone was in front of the TV and no one seemed interested in getting a poker game going. Eventually Billy said he wanted to play the heads up match for $100. We conned Chris into dealing for us and we got started with $100 each and the blinds were $.50 and $1. In the beginning I was winning the blinds and a couple of small pots, but Billy was winning the larger pots.

So after 20 or so hands I was down around $30. Now Billy decided he was going to lean on me. He started overbetting pots. If there was $5 in the pot, he'd bet $10. This was working because he was getting lucky enough to avoid playing pots with me when I had good hands. I was doing a good job of mixing up my play preflop, but he just seemed to have a good run of folding to my preflop raises when I had pocket pairs or high Aces.

Things were continuing to go bad, so I decided to change my strategy. Now I was going to play conservative preflop and try to outplay him after the flop. The blinds were still small (we upped them to $1-$2) so I could still afford to be patient. Sure enough, on the big blind I was dealt 5-7 and Billy just called from the button. The flop was 8-6-4 so I had flopped the nuts. I checked and Bill bet $10 on the flop. I only had about $40 left so I went all in. He called with a pair of 6's. I doubled up to around $85. By then the rest of the guys were ready to play and we called the match a draw.

Looking back, I think it makes more sense to play a little less aggressive preflop. It will be awful hard to win if I am consantly betting $3-$5 preflop to win $1. I think it makes more sense if we are playing with 30-50 times the big blind and not 100.

Once we started the full 1-2 Pot Limit game, I played terrible. If you refer back to my previous post I told myself that I would play solid poker this time and really restrict my bluffing. I also was going to try and isolate Carlo whenever I could. Unfortunately I didn't follow my strategy about the bluffing and Carlo sucked out on two pots where I isolated him.

Here were some of the key hands:

Carlo was on my right, which made it easy to isolate him. I had A-Q suited in early position. Carlo was utg and limped in. I raised to $7 which made everyone fold. The flop came out A-K-7. Carlo checked and I put him all in for about $10. He thought about it for a little bit and then called with his Ace-4. So I have him dominated. The turn is a blank. The river pairs the board and we split the pot with Aces up and King kicker. Good play, bad result.

In another hand, I managed to isolate Carlo again and he called all in with a flush draw on the flop. He hit it on the turn.

As for bad plays, once I had the nut flush draw against Jon. I think it was checked around on the flop. The turn gave me the nut flush draw. I semi bluffed and Jon called. The river was a blank and I though Jon might give me credit for the flush so I bet about 1/2 the pot. Jon called with middle set. That might have been the only hand that Jon calls with there. I still don't think it was wise for me to be messing around like that though. Jon is pretty good at picking off bluffs.

I have pocket 6's. I raise from middle position and only Marty calls. The flop is A-A-3. Marty bets $5 into a $10 pot. I am sure Marty would check an Ace so I think he may have hit the three. I just call and see if I can take the pot away on the turn. The turn is a 6 giving me 6's full of Aces. Marty bets again and I reraise all in. Marty calls and turns over A-3 for the full house Aces over 3's. It was a good play by Marty. I don't know if he thought it through or not, but he definitely played it against type.

My worst hand was just bad luck again in that I limped on the button with 7-8 suited. The flop came 6-7-8 rainbow. Marty in the big blind checks, and a couple of other guys check around. I make a pot sized bet. Marty reraises me all in. I decide that Marty would not make that move with a draw and I am pretty sure he would not do that with top pair. I lay it down face up and he shows me 9-10 for the nuts. That was my best play of the night and I lost money.

Overall I bluffed too much and I played too many hands preflop. I tried to get in cheap where I could, but there were too many times where I had to call raises after I limped and I was definitely not hitting any of those flops.

Last night I stopped at Fort McDowell after coming back from a client visit in Payson. I usually like the tournament structure there because they give you a decent amount of chips. I arrived a little later than I wanted at 5:30 PM so I didn't think I would get many bonus chips for my play before the tournament.

The first table available was 6-12. I bought in for $200 and proceeded to win my first hand. Then a little while later I flopped a set and won another big pot. I had doubled my buy in inside of 30 minutes. This table was playing as bad as a 2-4 table. I was really getting depressed that it was going to break when the tournament started.

Knowing it was going to break, I decided to sign up for the tournament anyways, since technically it would be a free roll with my winnings. Unfortunately I got screwed on my starting chips. I only started with 1000 and 25-50 blinds. Apparently they are allowing you to buy more chips with Frequent Player Points on your Fort McDowell card. Most of my table started with 3000-5000 in chips.

Add to equation that I was feeling a little under the weather, I decided that I would try to double up quick. I was pretty tight for the first two rounds because the rest of the players were just loose aggressive maniacs. I was down to about 700 in chips when I made my move.

I had Jack-10 suited a couple off the button. It was folded to me and I put in my 700 which was 7x the blind. The big blind called with A-7. I hit a Jack on the flop and it held up.

The blinds went up again to 75-150. I was under the gun. I raised all in with pocket 10's. I figure it might look a little suspicious but I wanted a call but only one caller if possible. The guy two to my left with a lot of chips decided to call with Ace-Jack. My tens held up and now I was over 3000.

I kept telling myself not to worry about making money in the tournament until I was the chip leader at my table. I was never close to that although eventually I was at least a middle stack. Eventually the 120 person field was wittled down to about 40. Here is the one hand I misplayed.

I had Ace-10 offsuit in the small blind. The Big Blind was really short and was definitely going to go all in on this hand. I think the blinds were 200-400 with 50 ante. My M was just over 10. It was folded to the button and tried to act all important and stares at his cards for a few seconds. Then he slowly counted out his chips for a raise to 1200. I felt like he was just trying to steal. I didn't know if I should just call and push in on the flop or just reraise him now. The hard part was the big blind being ready to go all in. I just called and the big blind put the rest of his chips in and we had to call 300 more.

The flop was all rags. I wussed out and checked. For some reason I thought the button might check it down. Now he put in 2000 which basically commits him to the pot. I fold. The button turned over K-7 suited. The big blind eventually won the hand. My Ace-10 would not have hit anything on the board.

I think this was one of those wrong moves at the right time. If my read is that he's stealing and I am trying to double up, I think Ace-10 is plenty good enough to push all in. It was probably enough to make him fold and it may have been strong enough to make the big blind fold anyway.

Eventually I made it to the final 3 tables. Incredibly the average stack was only 8x the blinds. No one at my table seemed to get that the only bet was all in. I stole a couple of pots. Then on the big blind I had Ace-Queen suited. The cutoff went all in. It looked like a steal, but it didn't matter because I was ready to stick my chips in. He flipped up K-9 of spades so I had him dominated since my cards were spades as well. He caught a King on the turn and I was out. I was 3 for 4 on my races, but unfortunately the one I lost, I was all in.

Never Say Die & Big Home Game Tonight

Sometimes it's a bad thing to be dealt pocket Aces in the first couple of rounds of blinds in a one table sit and go. Usually you end up winning a small pot of less than $100 and you are on your merry way. Occasionally you get lucky and run into someone with a lower pocket pair and manage to get all their chips.

It seems like about 50% of the time you get your preflop raise called and then the flop comes out with a few draws. You make a bet to protect your hand and the opponent calls again. Now I have 1/3 of my stack in the middle and I'm not really sure where I am at. The turn comes and it is another bad card which completes a straight or flush. Now what? Sometimes I feel like I should bet again to pray that they will fold. Other times I feel like checking and hoping they will let me get away from the pot without putting any more chips in the middle.

A couple of nights ago I was in this situation. The second hand of the tournament I get dealt Aces in the big blind. It's folded to the button who just calls. The small blind completes, so I'm thinking I am not going to make any money with this hand. I raise it to 50 and both call. The flop is Qd - Tc - 6d. The sb checks and I bet 100 into the 150 dollar pot. The button folds but the small blind calls. The turn is the 7d putting 3 diamonds on the board. The sb checks again so I still have no idea what he has. For some reason I'm playing a bit weak so I decided to check it through. The river is 9c so not only is there a flush out there, but all you need is an 8 for a straight or KJ for a better straight. I am thinking I am probably screwed. To increase this feeling the small blind leads out for 350 which is the size of the pot.

For some reason I can't lay it down so I call and he turns over Td - 4d for the flush. So I lose 500 with Aces. The good news is my check through on the turn kept the pot small. The bad news is, half my stack is gone.

What made this tournament a lot of fun is that I did not get discouraged. The blinds were only 10-15 so I still had an M of 20 so there was time to come back. Sure enough I scratched and clawed my way into a second place finish. In fact I managed to get Aces dealt to me again and this time I doubled up with them. Never give up!

Tonight is the National Championship game between USC and Texas. Curtis is having a few of us over to play 1-2 Pot Limit Hold'em and watch the game. The standard home game crew is coming so there is a chance to make some money. I think tonight I am going to play tight solid poker. Usually I goof around a little and try to push people around. I have lost a bit of money in the last couple of games, so hopefully they will remember that and call me with some crappy hands.

Here is my strategy. If I have a chance to isolate Carlo or Ryan in a hand I should probably do it. Especially Carlo since he'll chase with anything. Ryan I can get to fold along with Robert. I should probably stay away from Jon if he shows up. Bill I can just wait until about 9:00 PM when he'll get bored and then I can take all his money.

Bill also wants to challenge me to a heads up freeze out for $100. He owes me $150 from previous bets so basically I am playing with house money. Maybe we could start with .50-$1 blinds and move them up every 15 minutes. That should give me enough time to take him down. I think I want to play just to see if I have actually learned anything from all the sit and gos I have played in the two years since the last time we did it. We'll see.

Taking a Shot At The Big Game

Using the excuse of I had not had a losing session since I put the wedding ring on my finger, I thought I would take a little step up in limits to the 6-12 game at Gila River.

Right away, a bald guy sat down on my right that I had played against a couple of days earlier at the 4-8 table. He was someone who I wanted to stay away from. I don't think he's a great player necessarily, but he tends to be in pots with good cards and I don't think he's afraid to lay down a hand when he's beat. In other words, if I win any money off of him, it won't be much.

After a few rounds of blinds, my basic conclusion is that the players are still bad, just not as horrible as the low limit players. They will play A-10 under the gun, while a bad 3-6 player will play any Ace. There was a lot of raising preflop, but mostly it was due to the aggressive player in the 9 seat. He had a great personality and was obviously there to have fun. Just the type of player I like at my table.

Overall, I was not getting the best cards on night so there was probably no way I was going to come out a winner. However, there was one mistake I made over and over again.

Do not call a raise with Ace-Jack. Let me say this again.....DO NOT CALL A RAISE WITH ACE-JACK!!!!!!!!

I lost every time I was dealt these two evil cards. 1/2 the time I missed the flop and had to fold after calling 2 preflop. Once my Jack with top kicker was beat by Aces. Another time, my Ace with Jack kicker was beat by the Ace with Queen kicker. I chopped one pot when I paired the Ace but the board paired at the end. The player with the low Ace, was saved by the King on the flop which became the kicker for the Aces over 5's.

Another time, a player who was raising with crap came in for a raise again. I was on the button and just called because I was beat up (probably not the best reason for a decision). The flop had two Queens and a low card. The preflop raiser led out again. The flop looked pretty ragged and I was willing to gamble that he did not have a Queen. Plus I had a back door nut flush draw. My plan was to call the bet on the flop with the intention of raising the turn. The turn was another club giving me 4 to the flush but it was another low card. He bet out, but I decided that I would just call now to see if I hit the flush. If I get it on the end, I will raise him then. The river is another Ace. Once again he leads out.

My read is that he does not have a Queen. It's probably a medium pocket pair. Because he raised preflop and led out on every other street, there's a decent chance he has something better that just two pair. So I just make the crying call and he turns over Queen-7 for 3 of a kind. Ugh!

On a positive note. A few times the table got short handed, once even down to 5 players. I played very well short handed. I stepped up my aggressiveness and was raising in position and lead betting second pair. I actually made it into the black before the table filled up again. Once we got to 9 handed again, it all fell apart.

So after 5 hours of poker, I was down $217. Not a major loss, just enough to sting a little. One of these days I will step up in limits and actually be lucky enough to get some cards and make a score. I hope it happens in 2006.

Wedding in Vegas

I threw all my chips in the middle with Michele and now we are in the big poker game of life together.

The Bellagio did a fantastic job with the wedding and everyone who made the trip was really impressed.

However this blog is about poker and not my personal life so on with the poker escapades.

My first night was Thursday for the bachelor party. We all met up at the Mandalay Bay to play 2-4-8 Hold'em. While it was fun to get 2-3 of my friends on the same table so we could play together, I am not a big fan of this betting structure. The blinds are only $1 and $2. If you raise preflop, the bet increases to $6. So usually there are a bunch of limpers for $2 and then everyone gets grumpy if you raise and charge them $6. Plus the math gets harder as I have to remember to cut the bets in half for the flop and then in half again for the turn and river when calculating my pot odds.

I lost around $50 playing about 4 hours. Somehow Carlo managed to lose $300. He still claims he knows what he is doing. Adam busted out as well, but at least he managed to make it last a few hours. Carlo was gone in 90 minutes.

The rest of night was dinner at Joes, a club, and then back to the Bay for some late night blackjack. Somehow I went on a run although I never got my bet higher than $75. I believe I won $125 but it's a little blurry.

There was no poker Friday as I was busy all day, but Saturday I needed something to take my mind off of the pending nuptials.

The Bellagio poker room has become the busiest room on the strip. This is a slow weekend in Vegas and during prime hours every table was full and the waiting lists were huge. It may have had something to do with the big WPT tournament that was in town. Here is a list of all the Poker Stars I saw during my stay:
Marcle Luske
Chris Ferguson
Doyle Brunson
Johnny Chan
Ming Ly
Chip Reese
Gus Hansen
Sam Farha
Phil Ivey
and TJ Cloutier playing $10 craps at 8:30 AM

I knew I was only going to play for a couple of hours so I jumped on an 8-16 table instead of the 4-8 that I signed up for. The very first hand I played I raised with Ace King of diamonds and flopped the nut flush. I slow played it until the river against an aggressive player on the other end of the table and started out with a nice profit. Of course what always happens in these situations is that the table is really juicy and you get stuck. You want to stay because you know you will make it back but some other commitment is more important. Eventually I lost my profits and was put in just that spot. I lost around $100 but I felt that I was playing pretty well.

There was one hand where I had JJ on the button. There was a Queen on the flop and the big blind check raised me and I folded. He eventually showed down top pair with a weak kicker so it was a good laydown for me. Later I raised preflop with JJ and this guy plus another called after me preflop. I had just lost that other hand so when the flop came with an Ace and two medium cards, I decided to check this time since I was in bad position. The next player bet and the one who beat last time called. I decided that one of them must have an Ace since they called my tight ass raise and another bet on the flop.

Oops. They both had middle pair and I folded the best hand. I still probably made the correct play against most players. These guys were just incredibly loose. Still a better strategy is to lead out that flop and see where I am at.

I racked up and it was off to get changed for the wedding.

On Sunday, my new wife was nice enough to let me play most of the day. I had done most of the planning and she had been working extremely hard at work so she just wanted to lay on the couch and get some alone time.

I found another 8-16 table at Bellagio with at least 3 players who had been there all night and were still going at 9:00 AM. These guys were loose and just looking to have fun. The African guy from my session yesterday was also at the table drinking scotch straight up. He claims to have played online but he was extremely slow at making decisions and had a really hard time remembering who was in the hand and how much to bet.

I made a little run early and had nearly doubled up my $300 buy in. After 2 hours a couple of the players on my end were starting to tilt because the African guy was taking so long. I didn't care since he sucked and I wanted to keep him happy. Plus there was NFL football on the tv so there were some nice things to keep you distracted. Sure enough these guys decide to try and bust the African and pick the wrong hands as he starts to catch cards and they get frustrated and leave.

There was another guy who looks like a friend I have named Joe, so that is how I will refer to him. He was there to gambool. Occasionally he would play a hand blind and he would raise with crappy cards just to mix things up. On one hand where he folded, he bet the guy next to him $5 on who would win the pot that neither one of them were in. These are the kinds of tables I enjoy. Easy money and nobody really minds losing it.

I finished this session up over $100 but it could have been so much better. It is really annoying that everytime I try to move up into a bigger game, I find worse players but I still manage to lose crucial pots. I could have made over 500 if it wasn't for a couple of hands.

I had Jack-9 of diamonds in the small blind. A few limpers and I complete. The flop is Jack-7-7 and I lead out on the flop. I get one caller who seemed to be slow playing me and the African who could very well have a 3 card draw with 2 to come. The turn is a 6 and I lead out again. Both call. Now I am really starting to convince myself that someone has the 3rd 7. The river is another 6. I just check to see what happens. Surprisingly the guy who I think is slow playing checks as well and then the African bets. I had not seen him bluff on the river and there was still a chance that the other guy was waiting to check raise (although he'd be crazy to check on the river with the calling station on his left). I was getting 7 to 1 and if I close the action, I call but I had no idea what the guy on my left had. Depressingly after I fold, the other guy folds and I don't even get to see the hand. I try to chide him into showing me but he wants to keep it a secret.

I have QT suited in late position and I call after a few limpers. The flop is 10 high rainbow. It's checked to me and I bet. The African calls and and early limper calls. The turn is a low second club. I open and African folds. The early guy calls again. The river was the 3rd club and he leads out. I have to call because the pot's too big and I had seen he is capable of bluffing. Sure enough he caught middle pair on the flop with the backdoor flush draw. He made a bad call but not horribly bad on the flop and turn, but hit his card on the river.

A little while later I get AA cracked by a runner runner flush, and now I'm a little pissed.

The very next hand I am dealt Ace King of clubs. I raise and they probably think I'm steaming a little. Africa calls and the button calls. The button tried to act like he was a good player but was obviously calling down too many draws. Although it felt like he was getting the "I can never win a hand" discouraged look and was starting to tighten up.

This time the flop misses me, but it's only 10 high. I check, African checks, and the button bets. I briefly consider raising, but I just call. The African has already made a comment that he knows I only play solid hands. An amazing observation for someone who had probably consumed an entire bottle of scotch. African calls the flop bet as well. Because I was steaming a little I figure if the next card is higher than a 10 I am going to bluff at it. I know the best the button could possibly have is the 10 and the African is afraid of me.

The turn is the Queen. This time I lead out. The African folds instantly and the button thinks for a few seconds. Then he folds as well. I flip over my Ace King and proclaim, "I guess I have to bluff to win pots in this game, because my good hands don't hold up." I don't know what the button had, but someone mentioned that I had the best hand anyway.

I thought this was kind of a breakthrough moment though because I was thinking on a different level. By checking on the flop, the button must have assumed I had Ace King or Ace Queen. When the Queen comes out, he had to think he was beat. I am trying to wait on my bets until I think about what my opponents have and what they think I have. Always trying to get better.

Signs that you are at a good table

About a week ago I was playing at Casino Arizona on a Sunday while watching football. My table was full of fish and as usual, I was trying to be friendly and having random conversations. It occurred to me that there have been some common and not so common comments made at the table over the years that are sure signs that these players are losers.

I plan on coming back to this post from time to time to update it, but here is what I have so far:

1. I never raise with (AA, KK, AK) because I always lose with that hand

2. My ATM card has a withdrawal maximum, so I can't pull any more money out until midnight. Is there a branch nearby?

3. One fish calling another fish a bad player.

4. "I'll have another shot of whiskey"

5. "Straddle!"

6. "But it was sooooted!"

4. After playing any 2 suited for the 10th time and exclaiming, "Man I never seem to hit a flush!"

Detour on the Road to a Championship

This afternoon I was as close as I have ever been to scoring a big payday in a NL tournament. I entered the Full Tilt $10+1 with 267 entrants.

I started the tournament at 2:00 PM, fully expecting to bust out in time to clean the bathroom and make it to my parents by 5:00 PM. If it goes well, I might be able to skip the cleaning.

I slowly built my stack, but I never really got the lead at my table. For the longest time, I was just about average. Then with about 35 players left, I hit a couple of big hands and built up my chipstack to where I would easily cruise into the money. The problem was time was running out.

Eventually I made it to the final table, but it was 4:30 and I needed to shower and drive to my parents by 5:00 PM. I called and told them, I had a chance to win $700 so I was going to be late. I told them I would meet them at the restaurant instead of their house. The problem is, that the dinner is to celebrate my Mom and Michele's birthdays. I cannot leave them hanging.

It was now past 5:30 and I am meeting them at 6:00 PM. I had earlier taken a 4 minute shower during one of the tournament breaks and only lost a couple of blinds and antes. I was in 5th place and still had about 10x the bigblind. I called a 2x big blind raise from my blind with crap. The flop was very ragged so I lead out for 1/2 the pot. The big stack with 5x as many chips as me, doubles my bet and I fold. So now I am in desperation mode.

Next hand, is folded to me and I raise all in to get the blinds. I win. Now I'm on the button and it's folded to me again. This time I push with 10-8 offsuit. I get called by the big blind with Ace Jack. For the first time in the entire tournament, I win a race where I was an underdog and spike a 10 on the river. Then I get pocket Kings and win a nice pot. So now I am in 3rd place with 5 left and I have to leave for dinner.

Dammit this sucks! I relent to my familiy's wishes and set the computer for autofold. I come back from a great dinner at the Cheesecake Factory to find out I had managed to fold my way into 3rd place. That is a win of $333.75 so it still is a great finish and probably where I would have finished if I had actually been playing.

It was interesting that I never really sucked out on anyone until the very end. I only made one really good play where I recognized a player's stop n go move and I called with 2nd pair and bad kicker. I had tried to steal the blind with absolute crap and he had called and then pushed in after the flop. I had plenty of chips so I figured I would gamble a little.

The rest of the time, I just took advantage of my stealing opportunities and no one ever really played back at me. It definitely seems like the Full Tilt players are tighter and definitely not as aggressive.