Time to Move Up?

Results since last post:
O8 $1-$2 -$33
O8 $2-$4 -$3.50
Limit HE 8-16 -$11
Limit HE 10-20 +$293

I sat in the 8-16 game at Gila River last night and it was as soft as a 3-6 game.

This got me thinking. I would have won over $100 if I had not been involved and/or one just 1 pot. I played it correctly, it's just that two players that were hopelessly behind preflop and after the flop, managed to hit their draws. It's bad luck, but a good sign that even the higher players are making amateur mistakes.

I sat down tonight at a 10-20 game on Party Poker. There was one extremely bad fish that I won at least $150 from. I think his preflop calling % was over 70%.

I have 127 days until May 31st. I want a total bankroll of at least $7,000 by then. $3,000 of that will then be used to try and qualify for the Main Event of the WSOP. In 23 days of 2006, I have played 2700 hands online and a few hundred (educated guess) in the casinos. That works out to approximately 130 hands a day.

What limit will I need to play in order to assure myself of winning $2,000 in 127 days?

130 hands per day * 127 days = 16,510 hands

$2000 / 16,510 = $0.1211 per hand

In terms of $ per 100 hands then that is $12.11 per hand. So at 2 BB per 100, that would be $3-6 hold'em. If I go more conservatively at 1BB per 100, then I am looking at $6-$12

My stats in Poker Tracker through 28,134 hands in limit poker show an average win rate of 1.55 BB per 100 hands. In 2-4 hold'em it is 2.84 per 100 for 13,697 hands. In 3-6 hold'em it is 1.2 BB per 100 hands for 12,015 hands.

So my win rate per hand is:
$3-$6 ------ +0.072 per hand
$2-$4 ------- +0.1136 per hand
Here's the math. I wanted my total bankroll to be $7000 by March 31. Let's say it is $5,000 right now. So I need $2000 in 63 days.

At current win rate of 3-6 poker that is 27,777 hands. At 2-4 win rate it's 17,605 hands. That works out to 279 hands a day.

I think the best thing to do is 3 and 4 table at $3-6. Increase my win rate, and play more hands.

Tournament Disaster and Weekend of Tilt

Results since last post
Tourneys:
Heads Up +19
1 Table -110
2 Table -22
4 Table -350
5 Table -22
Multi -44

Total -529

Ring Games:
1-2 NL -243
3-6 limit +188

Total -55


As you can see from the title of this post, my weekend of poker did not go well.

The tournament at Jeff's started with 4 tables of 8. 2000 in chips and 25-50 blinds. I happened to get seated at a table where I knew a couple of the players who were decent so I decided to play ultra conservative and look to value bet when I could. I absolutely did not want to steal any pots in the beginning. It just didn't seem worth the risk.

Things were looking up after about the third hand when there were 3 guys in a hand. No raises before the flop, no bets on the flop and turn. The river is a blank and one player bets about 1/2 the pot. It looks like a steal but who knows. Another player calls. The first bettor had Jack high. Ok he took a stab and lost, I can get on board with that strategy. The caller turned over Jack high with a worse kicker! Wow! Maybe I can make some money on this table.

Later I was dealt pocket 8's and I called after a couple of limpers, hoping to flop a set. Chris raised on the button. Everyone folded except me. The flop was K-7-3. I check and he checks. The turn was a 5. This time I figure I am good so I bet about 1/2 the pot. Surprisingly Chris calls. We have played each other in past tournaments so I feel like he knows I am a good player. The river is an Ace. I am in no mood to play a big pot so I check and he checks behind. Now I am ready to rake in the pot and he turns over King-Jack. Huh? I am still wondering why he checked behind on the flop and only called the turn.

A little later, I got back above my starting chips when I rivered the nut flush against Steve's straight. Then my cards went stone dead. Nobody at my table was really making any progress. They seemed to be just shifting the chips around.

Finally I was down to around 8-9 times the blinds and I was dealt Ace-King offsuit. There was a small early raise and I reraised all in. Everyone else folded and the initial raiser called with A-10. Maybe this is where I make my move. A ten hits the flop and I fail to improve.

I rebuy for $100 and get moved to a different table. I am to the right of Brian, who plays up to 60-120 in the casino. I don't think he is that great a player, but I do know that he is better than most in the tournament. I am busy getting blinded down when the break comes. Now I can add another $1000 which I do. I look around at all the different chip stacks and it looks like the highest is only around 4,000. So if I can get up around 2,000 then double up, I will be in the thick of things.

The first or second hand after the break I am dealt pocket 8's in early position. I raise 3x the blind and Brian is my only caller. The blinds were high enough, that my only real move on the flop was going to be all in. I figure about 90% of the possible flops, I am going to move in anyway because Brian probably thinks I have a high pair.

The flop is 6-7-9 rainbow. Perfect! I move in and Brian can't get his chips in fast enough. He has pocket Aces. So preflop I am 4-1 dog. After the money goes in, I have 10 outs times 4 for a 40% chance. I'll take it I guess. Well I finally get lucky and my 5 hits on the river to crack his Aces. Brian was the chip leader too, so he was not very happy.

Now I have some room to maneuver. I try to steal the blinds with K-9 suited from the cut off. The big blind moves all in and I fold. Another rotation and again I raise with Ace King. The big blind moves all in. I have him covered by a good amount so I call. He has Ace Queen. Queen on the flop and no help for me, so now I am short stacked again.

It was down hill from there as I became totally desperate after another all in loss with Ace King. My final hand, I had pocket tens and lost to someone with pocket Queens.

In reviewing my play afterwards, there really wasn't much I could do. The pocket 10's were the best made hand I had the whole day. I never had anything better than a pair except when I rivered the straight against Brian or the rivered flush against Steve. There was never a time when I could set any traps to let the bad players fall into them.

I played a couple of winner take all $20 sit n go's after the tournament and busted out in the middle of both, so the total day was a loss of $390.

On Sunday I was supposed to to to Curtis' house and play poker and watch football. Since I was so disgusted with my play the last time I was there for the National Championship game, I decided to fire up Full Tilt and play a couple of tables of short handed No Limit with 1-2 blinds. I was trying to remember Phil Gordon's advice from the book I listened to in the morning. It didn't help.

Every time I had a decent hand, someone would raise a big amount representing at least two pair or a set. I on the other hand could not seem to flop a set to save my life or any other hand better than a pair.

Tilt was in full force when I a called a 2x raise from the button with Ace-9 suited. The flop was 10-9-3. I checked and he bet about 1/3 of the pot. I decided he's bluffing and I am tired of being pushed around, so I triple his bet and raise. He reraises me to put me all in for about $40 more. Out of frustration and not rational thought, I call. Amazingly he shows pocket 10'
s for the nuts. So that was a quick $250.

I get to Curtis' house and there are not enough people to play poker. During the boring second half of the game, I fire up a SNG at Party Poker on his laptop. Early in the sit, I get 4 queens. I win a few hundred but don't double up. A little later I am dealt 10-9 suited utg. I decide to play a little loose and call. Nobody raises but there are 4 players in the pot. The flop is 9 high. I fire out a small bet to see where I am at. The button vastly over bets the pot and goes all in. I am tempted to call, but decide it's too early to risk 1/2 my stack with a pair of 10's. He shows 9-7 suited, so I could have been in a commanding position.

Then, the cou de gras of my bad luck. I have Jack-7 on the big blind. No body raises and the small blind completes. The small blind is the chip leader. There are two 7's on the flop so I have 3 7's with a Jack kicker. I slow play the flop and check it through. The turn is a blank and the small blind bets small. I raise. He reraises me all in. I think I have him and call immediately. He has the case 7 along with an Ace kicker. Fuck!

I play a few more sits at home and eventually score a second place. Then I fire up the FCP site and win another $120 to stem the bleeding. Overall, a very bad weekend. I tried to explain to Michele why I was so bummed and I don't know if she quite understood.

I was really looking forward to the tournament on Saturday. I felt like I was hot going in, and I was going to win. I played the best I could and the cards did not fall my way. After that, I really wanted to score a win against my friends on Sunday, but didn't even get to play. So basically I was frustrated and the money loss stung a bit as well.

I guess I'll stick with Full Contact. I can't seem to lose there, lately. (Hope I don't jinx myself).

Phil Gordon's Green Book and Jeff's Tourney

Results since last post on 1/17/06
3-6 -$68.40
NL 1-2 +$111
NL $55 SNG's 4 played +$95

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I downloaded Phil Gordon's "Little Green Book of Poker" to my Ipod a couple of days ago. So far I am really impressed. No Limit cash games and big Multi Table Tournaments are easily my worst games. There are plenty of books that relate to Tournaments but not too many that discuss cash game strategies. This book definitely fits the bill.

I am only 1/2 way through it, but what I enjoy the most are the scripts that he runs in his head before he makes a decision. This is definitely something I need to commit to memory.

It also clarified my thinking on medium to low pocket pairs. It's ok to call a raise in position with these hands if it costs less than 12% of your stack. The idea being that if you hit your set and your opponent has more money than you, then you could theoretically double your stack. This makes up for the 7 out of 8 times that you do not hit your set.

Phil's philosophy on betting with a paired board is also interesting. If he raised before the flop and took control of the hand, then if there are only 1 or 2 players in the pot, usually the first player to bet will win the pot. It's hard for another player to hit the flop with only 2 cards in play instead of 3.

I also found it interesting that if he flops a flush, that he likes to play it fast even if he does not have the nut flush. If he thinks someone has the Ace or nut flush draw and he's already flopped it, then he wants to make his opponent pay to draw at it. They think they have 9 outs but they really only have 7 so you can force your opponent to make a costly mistake. He believes that the chances of someone flopping a flush when you flop a flush are so slim that he will go broke with the hand.

In addition to reading or listening to Phil's book, I have joined Thomas Keller's website and his "Thunder Squadron". He has taken it upon himself to set up a new website designed to help other players improve their game. 2+2 has become a little weak lately, so I am glad to have a new resource. Thomas seems to be active on the site so it's good to get a pro's feedback once in a while. Plus, since he grew up in Chandler, a lot of the posters on the site live in Arizona so I have a chance to make some new local poker friends. Since one of the requirements to join his squadron is to keep detailed records, so I am recommitting myself to keeping Poker Tracker updated and I will lead off every blog with my results since the previous blog.

Finally, Jeff is having another big poker tournament. I have played in 3 and cashed in 2 so I am really looking forward to it. I still think he should lower the buy in to get more players, but $150 does keep out some of the riff raff. The problem is he only gets about 30 players. If you rebuy once, then you have to make the top 5 just to break even. I think I am ready to make a big score.

I Think I Have Found The Sweet Spot

I have been playing a lot of 3-6 Hold'em on Full Contact Poker lately. This is Daniel Negreanu's skin for Poker Room. They gave me a great bonus to work off after I deposited $650. I think it was around $350. I have earned over $150 so far in the bonus plus another $250 or so in table winnings.

The site is pretty cool and the hands seem to move faster than Party Poker. There have been some software glitches like part of my screen going dark or the note taking function not working, but overall I am pretty happy with the site.

I have been doing quite well because I can make Poker Tracker work in conjunction with the live games. I have set up PT to download the hand histories every 5 minutes. After 20 minutes or so I have 20 or more hands on everyone in the table. FCP allows you to color code your notes so it makes it really easy to identify which players are Tight Aggro, Loose Aggro, or Passive fish. With only 16,000 players, there seem to be a lot of the same players that show up at the same time and a lot of them are easy money. Even the waiting lists are usually not too long. I will scan the open games and look for tables where the pots are at least 5 big bets and put myself on the list. After 30 minutes I can tell whether a game is fat or not just by the stats. My only issue is that the site is that it's not big enough to support playing 3 or more tables at one time. I don't think I could find enough healthy games plus it would probably move too quick for me.

I have tried using Poker Tracker with Party Poker and PT always seems to crash after 15 minutes. It's been great to get to use it again.

I played a couple of Sit-n-Go's on Full Tilt last night as well. I bought into a $55 and a $33. In the $55 I got a hold of some chips early and basically cruised into the final 3. Both of the players seemed decent so I knew this part would be a dog fight. I lost a good chunk of chips slow playing top two pair and a flush hit the river. The leader went all in and I took too long to call so the site folded me. I asked in the chat if he had the flush and he said he did. Good thing I timed out I guess? Now I was down to about 6-7 big blinds. I was dealt 55 on the big blind. The button made a 3x raise from the button which I took as weak. She was in the 10 BB range where the all in move made more sense. She had played timid in the past, so it looked like a steal. I was short enough that it didn't matter as long as the small blind folded, which he did. I reraised all in and the button called in a shot with AA. Another excellent read by me!!! It worked out well for me though as I caught another 5 on the turn and put her down to a very small stack.

Once it got to heads up, my opponent was coming over the top of me on my raises from the small blind. I had to fold the first few. Then I won a bunch of chips when I pushed in the turn with Ace high. He had an open ended straight draw and luckily he missed.

Now he was playing the all in game. He took back the chip lead and I had had enough. I raised 3x the blind from the small blind with A-2. He raised all in again. This time I called and he had King X unsuited. Unfortunately he hit the X on the turn and I was done the next hand.

The 33 was a rock fest. No one seemed to raise and I never got any action whenever I raised. I finally made it down to 4 handed. I got caught stealing once or twice so my stack was down to 4x the blind. The guy on my left was just as short and the other two had comfortable stacks. In the small blind, I was dealt 5-2 offsuit. The math says push so I did, hoping the other shortie would continue to play tight. He waited unti the last second and he called with King-4. I hit a 2 on the flop, but he hit the 4 on the turn and the King on the river and busted me on the bubble.

I know it was only 2 games, but they seemed a heck of a lot softer than the $55's at Party Poker. I will have to give them a few more chances and see what happens.

Review of Home Game, Heads Up, Ft McDowell

The Rose Bowl was a great game. I especially enjoyed Bill telling me that I "have to pick your spots" when it comes to sports betting. His $300 bet on the Trojans went down in flames. Yet another great example of why I seldom bet on sports anymore. It's just too damn frustrating.

When I arrived after fighting traffic for an hour, everyone was in front of the TV and no one seemed interested in getting a poker game going. Eventually Billy said he wanted to play the heads up match for $100. We conned Chris into dealing for us and we got started with $100 each and the blinds were $.50 and $1. In the beginning I was winning the blinds and a couple of small pots, but Billy was winning the larger pots.

So after 20 or so hands I was down around $30. Now Billy decided he was going to lean on me. He started overbetting pots. If there was $5 in the pot, he'd bet $10. This was working because he was getting lucky enough to avoid playing pots with me when I had good hands. I was doing a good job of mixing up my play preflop, but he just seemed to have a good run of folding to my preflop raises when I had pocket pairs or high Aces.

Things were continuing to go bad, so I decided to change my strategy. Now I was going to play conservative preflop and try to outplay him after the flop. The blinds were still small (we upped them to $1-$2) so I could still afford to be patient. Sure enough, on the big blind I was dealt 5-7 and Billy just called from the button. The flop was 8-6-4 so I had flopped the nuts. I checked and Bill bet $10 on the flop. I only had about $40 left so I went all in. He called with a pair of 6's. I doubled up to around $85. By then the rest of the guys were ready to play and we called the match a draw.

Looking back, I think it makes more sense to play a little less aggressive preflop. It will be awful hard to win if I am consantly betting $3-$5 preflop to win $1. I think it makes more sense if we are playing with 30-50 times the big blind and not 100.

Once we started the full 1-2 Pot Limit game, I played terrible. If you refer back to my previous post I told myself that I would play solid poker this time and really restrict my bluffing. I also was going to try and isolate Carlo whenever I could. Unfortunately I didn't follow my strategy about the bluffing and Carlo sucked out on two pots where I isolated him.

Here were some of the key hands:

Carlo was on my right, which made it easy to isolate him. I had A-Q suited in early position. Carlo was utg and limped in. I raised to $7 which made everyone fold. The flop came out A-K-7. Carlo checked and I put him all in for about $10. He thought about it for a little bit and then called with his Ace-4. So I have him dominated. The turn is a blank. The river pairs the board and we split the pot with Aces up and King kicker. Good play, bad result.

In another hand, I managed to isolate Carlo again and he called all in with a flush draw on the flop. He hit it on the turn.

As for bad plays, once I had the nut flush draw against Jon. I think it was checked around on the flop. The turn gave me the nut flush draw. I semi bluffed and Jon called. The river was a blank and I though Jon might give me credit for the flush so I bet about 1/2 the pot. Jon called with middle set. That might have been the only hand that Jon calls with there. I still don't think it was wise for me to be messing around like that though. Jon is pretty good at picking off bluffs.

I have pocket 6's. I raise from middle position and only Marty calls. The flop is A-A-3. Marty bets $5 into a $10 pot. I am sure Marty would check an Ace so I think he may have hit the three. I just call and see if I can take the pot away on the turn. The turn is a 6 giving me 6's full of Aces. Marty bets again and I reraise all in. Marty calls and turns over A-3 for the full house Aces over 3's. It was a good play by Marty. I don't know if he thought it through or not, but he definitely played it against type.

My worst hand was just bad luck again in that I limped on the button with 7-8 suited. The flop came 6-7-8 rainbow. Marty in the big blind checks, and a couple of other guys check around. I make a pot sized bet. Marty reraises me all in. I decide that Marty would not make that move with a draw and I am pretty sure he would not do that with top pair. I lay it down face up and he shows me 9-10 for the nuts. That was my best play of the night and I lost money.

Overall I bluffed too much and I played too many hands preflop. I tried to get in cheap where I could, but there were too many times where I had to call raises after I limped and I was definitely not hitting any of those flops.

Last night I stopped at Fort McDowell after coming back from a client visit in Payson. I usually like the tournament structure there because they give you a decent amount of chips. I arrived a little later than I wanted at 5:30 PM so I didn't think I would get many bonus chips for my play before the tournament.

The first table available was 6-12. I bought in for $200 and proceeded to win my first hand. Then a little while later I flopped a set and won another big pot. I had doubled my buy in inside of 30 minutes. This table was playing as bad as a 2-4 table. I was really getting depressed that it was going to break when the tournament started.

Knowing it was going to break, I decided to sign up for the tournament anyways, since technically it would be a free roll with my winnings. Unfortunately I got screwed on my starting chips. I only started with 1000 and 25-50 blinds. Apparently they are allowing you to buy more chips with Frequent Player Points on your Fort McDowell card. Most of my table started with 3000-5000 in chips.

Add to equation that I was feeling a little under the weather, I decided that I would try to double up quick. I was pretty tight for the first two rounds because the rest of the players were just loose aggressive maniacs. I was down to about 700 in chips when I made my move.

I had Jack-10 suited a couple off the button. It was folded to me and I put in my 700 which was 7x the blind. The big blind called with A-7. I hit a Jack on the flop and it held up.

The blinds went up again to 75-150. I was under the gun. I raised all in with pocket 10's. I figure it might look a little suspicious but I wanted a call but only one caller if possible. The guy two to my left with a lot of chips decided to call with Ace-Jack. My tens held up and now I was over 3000.

I kept telling myself not to worry about making money in the tournament until I was the chip leader at my table. I was never close to that although eventually I was at least a middle stack. Eventually the 120 person field was wittled down to about 40. Here is the one hand I misplayed.

I had Ace-10 offsuit in the small blind. The Big Blind was really short and was definitely going to go all in on this hand. I think the blinds were 200-400 with 50 ante. My M was just over 10. It was folded to the button and tried to act all important and stares at his cards for a few seconds. Then he slowly counted out his chips for a raise to 1200. I felt like he was just trying to steal. I didn't know if I should just call and push in on the flop or just reraise him now. The hard part was the big blind being ready to go all in. I just called and the big blind put the rest of his chips in and we had to call 300 more.

The flop was all rags. I wussed out and checked. For some reason I thought the button might check it down. Now he put in 2000 which basically commits him to the pot. I fold. The button turned over K-7 suited. The big blind eventually won the hand. My Ace-10 would not have hit anything on the board.

I think this was one of those wrong moves at the right time. If my read is that he's stealing and I am trying to double up, I think Ace-10 is plenty good enough to push all in. It was probably enough to make him fold and it may have been strong enough to make the big blind fold anyway.

Eventually I made it to the final 3 tables. Incredibly the average stack was only 8x the blinds. No one at my table seemed to get that the only bet was all in. I stole a couple of pots. Then on the big blind I had Ace-Queen suited. The cutoff went all in. It looked like a steal, but it didn't matter because I was ready to stick my chips in. He flipped up K-9 of spades so I had him dominated since my cards were spades as well. He caught a King on the turn and I was out. I was 3 for 4 on my races, but unfortunately the one I lost, I was all in.

Never Say Die & Big Home Game Tonight

Sometimes it's a bad thing to be dealt pocket Aces in the first couple of rounds of blinds in a one table sit and go. Usually you end up winning a small pot of less than $100 and you are on your merry way. Occasionally you get lucky and run into someone with a lower pocket pair and manage to get all their chips.

It seems like about 50% of the time you get your preflop raise called and then the flop comes out with a few draws. You make a bet to protect your hand and the opponent calls again. Now I have 1/3 of my stack in the middle and I'm not really sure where I am at. The turn comes and it is another bad card which completes a straight or flush. Now what? Sometimes I feel like I should bet again to pray that they will fold. Other times I feel like checking and hoping they will let me get away from the pot without putting any more chips in the middle.

A couple of nights ago I was in this situation. The second hand of the tournament I get dealt Aces in the big blind. It's folded to the button who just calls. The small blind completes, so I'm thinking I am not going to make any money with this hand. I raise it to 50 and both call. The flop is Qd - Tc - 6d. The sb checks and I bet 100 into the 150 dollar pot. The button folds but the small blind calls. The turn is the 7d putting 3 diamonds on the board. The sb checks again so I still have no idea what he has. For some reason I'm playing a bit weak so I decided to check it through. The river is 9c so not only is there a flush out there, but all you need is an 8 for a straight or KJ for a better straight. I am thinking I am probably screwed. To increase this feeling the small blind leads out for 350 which is the size of the pot.

For some reason I can't lay it down so I call and he turns over Td - 4d for the flush. So I lose 500 with Aces. The good news is my check through on the turn kept the pot small. The bad news is, half my stack is gone.

What made this tournament a lot of fun is that I did not get discouraged. The blinds were only 10-15 so I still had an M of 20 so there was time to come back. Sure enough I scratched and clawed my way into a second place finish. In fact I managed to get Aces dealt to me again and this time I doubled up with them. Never give up!

Tonight is the National Championship game between USC and Texas. Curtis is having a few of us over to play 1-2 Pot Limit Hold'em and watch the game. The standard home game crew is coming so there is a chance to make some money. I think tonight I am going to play tight solid poker. Usually I goof around a little and try to push people around. I have lost a bit of money in the last couple of games, so hopefully they will remember that and call me with some crappy hands.

Here is my strategy. If I have a chance to isolate Carlo or Ryan in a hand I should probably do it. Especially Carlo since he'll chase with anything. Ryan I can get to fold along with Robert. I should probably stay away from Jon if he shows up. Bill I can just wait until about 9:00 PM when he'll get bored and then I can take all his money.

Bill also wants to challenge me to a heads up freeze out for $100. He owes me $150 from previous bets so basically I am playing with house money. Maybe we could start with .50-$1 blinds and move them up every 15 minutes. That should give me enough time to take him down. I think I want to play just to see if I have actually learned anything from all the sit and gos I have played in the two years since the last time we did it. We'll see.

Taking a Shot At The Big Game

Using the excuse of I had not had a losing session since I put the wedding ring on my finger, I thought I would take a little step up in limits to the 6-12 game at Gila River.

Right away, a bald guy sat down on my right that I had played against a couple of days earlier at the 4-8 table. He was someone who I wanted to stay away from. I don't think he's a great player necessarily, but he tends to be in pots with good cards and I don't think he's afraid to lay down a hand when he's beat. In other words, if I win any money off of him, it won't be much.

After a few rounds of blinds, my basic conclusion is that the players are still bad, just not as horrible as the low limit players. They will play A-10 under the gun, while a bad 3-6 player will play any Ace. There was a lot of raising preflop, but mostly it was due to the aggressive player in the 9 seat. He had a great personality and was obviously there to have fun. Just the type of player I like at my table.

Overall, I was not getting the best cards on night so there was probably no way I was going to come out a winner. However, there was one mistake I made over and over again.

Do not call a raise with Ace-Jack. Let me say this again.....DO NOT CALL A RAISE WITH ACE-JACK!!!!!!!!

I lost every time I was dealt these two evil cards. 1/2 the time I missed the flop and had to fold after calling 2 preflop. Once my Jack with top kicker was beat by Aces. Another time, my Ace with Jack kicker was beat by the Ace with Queen kicker. I chopped one pot when I paired the Ace but the board paired at the end. The player with the low Ace, was saved by the King on the flop which became the kicker for the Aces over 5's.

Another time, a player who was raising with crap came in for a raise again. I was on the button and just called because I was beat up (probably not the best reason for a decision). The flop had two Queens and a low card. The preflop raiser led out again. The flop looked pretty ragged and I was willing to gamble that he did not have a Queen. Plus I had a back door nut flush draw. My plan was to call the bet on the flop with the intention of raising the turn. The turn was another club giving me 4 to the flush but it was another low card. He bet out, but I decided that I would just call now to see if I hit the flush. If I get it on the end, I will raise him then. The river is another Ace. Once again he leads out.

My read is that he does not have a Queen. It's probably a medium pocket pair. Because he raised preflop and led out on every other street, there's a decent chance he has something better that just two pair. So I just make the crying call and he turns over Queen-7 for 3 of a kind. Ugh!

On a positive note. A few times the table got short handed, once even down to 5 players. I played very well short handed. I stepped up my aggressiveness and was raising in position and lead betting second pair. I actually made it into the black before the table filled up again. Once we got to 9 handed again, it all fell apart.

So after 5 hours of poker, I was down $217. Not a major loss, just enough to sting a little. One of these days I will step up in limits and actually be lucky enough to get some cards and make a score. I hope it happens in 2006.

Wedding in Vegas

I threw all my chips in the middle with Michele and now we are in the big poker game of life together.

The Bellagio did a fantastic job with the wedding and everyone who made the trip was really impressed.

However this blog is about poker and not my personal life so on with the poker escapades.

My first night was Thursday for the bachelor party. We all met up at the Mandalay Bay to play 2-4-8 Hold'em. While it was fun to get 2-3 of my friends on the same table so we could play together, I am not a big fan of this betting structure. The blinds are only $1 and $2. If you raise preflop, the bet increases to $6. So usually there are a bunch of limpers for $2 and then everyone gets grumpy if you raise and charge them $6. Plus the math gets harder as I have to remember to cut the bets in half for the flop and then in half again for the turn and river when calculating my pot odds.

I lost around $50 playing about 4 hours. Somehow Carlo managed to lose $300. He still claims he knows what he is doing. Adam busted out as well, but at least he managed to make it last a few hours. Carlo was gone in 90 minutes.

The rest of night was dinner at Joes, a club, and then back to the Bay for some late night blackjack. Somehow I went on a run although I never got my bet higher than $75. I believe I won $125 but it's a little blurry.

There was no poker Friday as I was busy all day, but Saturday I needed something to take my mind off of the pending nuptials.

The Bellagio poker room has become the busiest room on the strip. This is a slow weekend in Vegas and during prime hours every table was full and the waiting lists were huge. It may have had something to do with the big WPT tournament that was in town. Here is a list of all the Poker Stars I saw during my stay:
Marcle Luske
Chris Ferguson
Doyle Brunson
Johnny Chan
Ming Ly
Chip Reese
Gus Hansen
Sam Farha
Phil Ivey
and TJ Cloutier playing $10 craps at 8:30 AM

I knew I was only going to play for a couple of hours so I jumped on an 8-16 table instead of the 4-8 that I signed up for. The very first hand I played I raised with Ace King of diamonds and flopped the nut flush. I slow played it until the river against an aggressive player on the other end of the table and started out with a nice profit. Of course what always happens in these situations is that the table is really juicy and you get stuck. You want to stay because you know you will make it back but some other commitment is more important. Eventually I lost my profits and was put in just that spot. I lost around $100 but I felt that I was playing pretty well.

There was one hand where I had JJ on the button. There was a Queen on the flop and the big blind check raised me and I folded. He eventually showed down top pair with a weak kicker so it was a good laydown for me. Later I raised preflop with JJ and this guy plus another called after me preflop. I had just lost that other hand so when the flop came with an Ace and two medium cards, I decided to check this time since I was in bad position. The next player bet and the one who beat last time called. I decided that one of them must have an Ace since they called my tight ass raise and another bet on the flop.

Oops. They both had middle pair and I folded the best hand. I still probably made the correct play against most players. These guys were just incredibly loose. Still a better strategy is to lead out that flop and see where I am at.

I racked up and it was off to get changed for the wedding.

On Sunday, my new wife was nice enough to let me play most of the day. I had done most of the planning and she had been working extremely hard at work so she just wanted to lay on the couch and get some alone time.

I found another 8-16 table at Bellagio with at least 3 players who had been there all night and were still going at 9:00 AM. These guys were loose and just looking to have fun. The African guy from my session yesterday was also at the table drinking scotch straight up. He claims to have played online but he was extremely slow at making decisions and had a really hard time remembering who was in the hand and how much to bet.

I made a little run early and had nearly doubled up my $300 buy in. After 2 hours a couple of the players on my end were starting to tilt because the African guy was taking so long. I didn't care since he sucked and I wanted to keep him happy. Plus there was NFL football on the tv so there were some nice things to keep you distracted. Sure enough these guys decide to try and bust the African and pick the wrong hands as he starts to catch cards and they get frustrated and leave.

There was another guy who looks like a friend I have named Joe, so that is how I will refer to him. He was there to gambool. Occasionally he would play a hand blind and he would raise with crappy cards just to mix things up. On one hand where he folded, he bet the guy next to him $5 on who would win the pot that neither one of them were in. These are the kinds of tables I enjoy. Easy money and nobody really minds losing it.

I finished this session up over $100 but it could have been so much better. It is really annoying that everytime I try to move up into a bigger game, I find worse players but I still manage to lose crucial pots. I could have made over 500 if it wasn't for a couple of hands.

I had Jack-9 of diamonds in the small blind. A few limpers and I complete. The flop is Jack-7-7 and I lead out on the flop. I get one caller who seemed to be slow playing me and the African who could very well have a 3 card draw with 2 to come. The turn is a 6 and I lead out again. Both call. Now I am really starting to convince myself that someone has the 3rd 7. The river is another 6. I just check to see what happens. Surprisingly the guy who I think is slow playing checks as well and then the African bets. I had not seen him bluff on the river and there was still a chance that the other guy was waiting to check raise (although he'd be crazy to check on the river with the calling station on his left). I was getting 7 to 1 and if I close the action, I call but I had no idea what the guy on my left had. Depressingly after I fold, the other guy folds and I don't even get to see the hand. I try to chide him into showing me but he wants to keep it a secret.

I have QT suited in late position and I call after a few limpers. The flop is 10 high rainbow. It's checked to me and I bet. The African calls and and early limper calls. The turn is a low second club. I open and African folds. The early guy calls again. The river was the 3rd club and he leads out. I have to call because the pot's too big and I had seen he is capable of bluffing. Sure enough he caught middle pair on the flop with the backdoor flush draw. He made a bad call but not horribly bad on the flop and turn, but hit his card on the river.

A little while later I get AA cracked by a runner runner flush, and now I'm a little pissed.

The very next hand I am dealt Ace King of clubs. I raise and they probably think I'm steaming a little. Africa calls and the button calls. The button tried to act like he was a good player but was obviously calling down too many draws. Although it felt like he was getting the "I can never win a hand" discouraged look and was starting to tighten up.

This time the flop misses me, but it's only 10 high. I check, African checks, and the button bets. I briefly consider raising, but I just call. The African has already made a comment that he knows I only play solid hands. An amazing observation for someone who had probably consumed an entire bottle of scotch. African calls the flop bet as well. Because I was steaming a little I figure if the next card is higher than a 10 I am going to bluff at it. I know the best the button could possibly have is the 10 and the African is afraid of me.

The turn is the Queen. This time I lead out. The African folds instantly and the button thinks for a few seconds. Then he folds as well. I flip over my Ace King and proclaim, "I guess I have to bluff to win pots in this game, because my good hands don't hold up." I don't know what the button had, but someone mentioned that I had the best hand anyway.

I thought this was kind of a breakthrough moment though because I was thinking on a different level. By checking on the flop, the button must have assumed I had Ace King or Ace Queen. When the Queen comes out, he had to think he was beat. I am trying to wait on my bets until I think about what my opponents have and what they think I have. Always trying to get better.

Signs that you are at a good table

About a week ago I was playing at Casino Arizona on a Sunday while watching football. My table was full of fish and as usual, I was trying to be friendly and having random conversations. It occurred to me that there have been some common and not so common comments made at the table over the years that are sure signs that these players are losers.

I plan on coming back to this post from time to time to update it, but here is what I have so far:

1. I never raise with (AA, KK, AK) because I always lose with that hand

2. My ATM card has a withdrawal maximum, so I can't pull any more money out until midnight. Is there a branch nearby?

3. One fish calling another fish a bad player.

4. "I'll have another shot of whiskey"

5. "Straddle!"

6. "But it was sooooted!"

4. After playing any 2 suited for the 10th time and exclaiming, "Man I never seem to hit a flush!"

Detour on the Road to a Championship

This afternoon I was as close as I have ever been to scoring a big payday in a NL tournament. I entered the Full Tilt $10+1 with 267 entrants.

I started the tournament at 2:00 PM, fully expecting to bust out in time to clean the bathroom and make it to my parents by 5:00 PM. If it goes well, I might be able to skip the cleaning.

I slowly built my stack, but I never really got the lead at my table. For the longest time, I was just about average. Then with about 35 players left, I hit a couple of big hands and built up my chipstack to where I would easily cruise into the money. The problem was time was running out.

Eventually I made it to the final table, but it was 4:30 and I needed to shower and drive to my parents by 5:00 PM. I called and told them, I had a chance to win $700 so I was going to be late. I told them I would meet them at the restaurant instead of their house. The problem is, that the dinner is to celebrate my Mom and Michele's birthdays. I cannot leave them hanging.

It was now past 5:30 and I am meeting them at 6:00 PM. I had earlier taken a 4 minute shower during one of the tournament breaks and only lost a couple of blinds and antes. I was in 5th place and still had about 10x the bigblind. I called a 2x big blind raise from my blind with crap. The flop was very ragged so I lead out for 1/2 the pot. The big stack with 5x as many chips as me, doubles my bet and I fold. So now I am in desperation mode.

Next hand, is folded to me and I raise all in to get the blinds. I win. Now I'm on the button and it's folded to me again. This time I push with 10-8 offsuit. I get called by the big blind with Ace Jack. For the first time in the entire tournament, I win a race where I was an underdog and spike a 10 on the river. Then I get pocket Kings and win a nice pot. So now I am in 3rd place with 5 left and I have to leave for dinner.

Dammit this sucks! I relent to my familiy's wishes and set the computer for autofold. I come back from a great dinner at the Cheesecake Factory to find out I had managed to fold my way into 3rd place. That is a win of $333.75 so it still is a great finish and probably where I would have finished if I had actually been playing.

It was interesting that I never really sucked out on anyone until the very end. I only made one really good play where I recognized a player's stop n go move and I called with 2nd pair and bad kicker. I had tried to steal the blind with absolute crap and he had called and then pushed in after the flop. I had plenty of chips so I figured I would gamble a little.

The rest of the time, I just took advantage of my stealing opportunities and no one ever really played back at me. It definitely seems like the Full Tilt players are tighter and definitely not as aggressive.

U of A vs ASU at Gila River

Since Chris did not come up with tickets to the big football game on Friday, I decided to play poker at the Gila River Casino and watch the game while I played.

It was only 11:00 AM so the place was a little slow. I hopped right in to a 4-8 Hold'em game in seat 4 with a nice view of the big screen tv. Little did I know that the big show was going to be at my table.

Thirty minutes into the game a guy with a mustache and sunglasses sat down in the 6 seat. I soon discovered that he was the world's worst Hold'em player. I have seen loose and aggressive before, but he took it to an entirely new level. The best part of it was, he hit a tremendous streak of luck.

I sometimes wonder if it's bad karma to root for the bad player to win pots so you can take his money later. Mustache man quickly ran his stack up over $400 and had to ask for a color change, because he had too many chips on the table and did not know how to stack them properly. Then the luck turned and he eventually went all in a couple of times. Each time I was rooting for him to hit his draw so he would not go home. Is that wrong?

All the while, I had shitty cards and was patiently biding my time. With Mustache man on my left, I needed to be very selective about which cards to play because he was raising 80% of the time. I also had a decent player on my direct left. He bluffed me out of one pot when the straight and flush card came on the river. If I check and he bets as a bluff, that is usually a decent chance. This time I bet and he bluff raised me. Not as good a move from a math standpoint but he was perceptive enough to realize that I would lay it down.

After watching Mr. Bluff for a while I realized that he got hot early and started playing way too many hands. He was feeling invincible and it was only a matter of time before he would lose it all back.

So after a 2-3 hours I was down about $60. Luckily the U of A was winning the football game so I was not too preoccupied with the fact that I was losing at poker. Finally the streak ended and I was dealt AA under the gun. I raised to 8 and of course Mustache man reraised to 12. Amazingly, the young guy two seats to his left capped it. I wanted to cap it but this allowed me to disguise my hand so it's just as well.

The flop was Ace-2-7. I decide to check and let them bet it for me. Mustache bets, young guy raises, I 3 bet. Mustache man calls and then young guy caps it and is all in. I call and Mustache calls again. I have no idea what Mustache man has. I am assuming that young guy has Ace King. The turn is a 5 and is the second heart on the board. I bet and Mustache calls. The river is a 3 and also a heart so it's completed a flush and a straight draw. Now I am a little worried but what can you do? I bet and mustache man thinks for a while. Then he announces, "I have to raise you". Fuck! Well the pot is too big to fold so I call and turn over my trip Aces. The young guy turns over his Ace King and I lose to mustache man's straight. He had 4-9 offsuit!

Let's run down the errors he made on this hand:
1. playing 4-9 offsuit anywhere but the big blind for free is wrong.
2. compounding his error, he reraises the tightest player at the table with it preflop.
3. He called two more on the flop after a raise and reraise with only the runner runner straight draw.
4. On the river, with a possible flush out there, he raises me. I seriously doubt he considered the flush was even out there.

So now I am down about $150. I handle the bad beat really well and decide that I am definitely not leaving this table until Mustache man leaves. This is too good of an opportunity. For the most part, everyone at the table was having a good time and were taking the bad beats well. I was going to do everything in my power to keep Mustache man happy and at the table.

Hours go by and I am constantly struggling to get back to even. The U of A loses on a last second field goal, so now the only way to make me happy is to win my money back at poker.
Finally by 7:00 PM, Mustache man has begun to lose his money and I am close to even. He leaves and I decide that the guy in the one seat is a pretty big fish as well so I might as well stay. I hit a small rush and by 8:00 PM I am up $60 and going home. I was totally fried, but it felt great to leave a winner.

Full Tilt $4000 Guarantee

This was originally intended to be a running record of a good run I had in the Full Tilt Tournament. I'm afraid it's turned into jibberish. I will do my best to edit.

I am chip leader with 120 remaining with 9900 chips. Average stack is 2737.

Big hand to get me there was AK off in early position. Under the gun raised, I reraised him to put him all in. Another player went all in behind me and I would have to call 500 more. First guy calls and I have to call with great odds. UTG turns over 99 and guy who raised me turns over AQ suited. I spike the King on the river.

I am hitting cards like crazy and getting paid off. It seems a little sad that I need to get so many great hands in order to make it this far in a tournament. It's seems to refute the concept of the cards do not matter.

I just busted another guy with trip 4's against his AA. Up to 15k. Next closest is 9800

I have donked off 4k in chips on a blind steal gone bad and a reraise preflop with 77. With the 77's he came over the top again. I just called. The flop was A-?-? with the ? being below my 7's. He checked and only had 1700 left. I felt like if he was weak or medium he would have bet into me. If he checks he probably has the Ace and wants me to bet first. I checked through. The turn was another low card and bet out. I folded like a pussy.

JJ in middle position. 2x the blind raise in front of me. I raise to 2000. The small blind goes all in with 2700. BB folds and initial raiser folds. I call the last 700. He turns over AQ offsuit. He hits Q on river. I am down to 8130. Blinds are now 100-200. 13th place out of 59. Next closest at table is 6070.

Blinds up to 120-240 with 20 ante. I raise Jc10c and steal blinds.

I have slipped into 3rd place at table due to other's winning pots, not me losing.

A7 diamonds, I steal blinds. Steals are worth 560.

I think this is the point where I steal blinds but don't bluff at pots because it costs too much if I am wrong.

Blinds up to 150-300 with 25 ante. I am at 7725 after posting bb in last hand.

In the small blind I am dealt KK. The button raises to 800. I reraise to 2000, he folds.

A6 off in cutoff. I steal blinds. The chip leader with 25,310 has moved to my table two to my left.
AKo in middle position. One limper and I raise. Button reraises all in for 8000. I call he turns over AQ. Ace on flop and my hand holds up. Back up to 18,000. Aren't these the kind of hands when you are running good he turns up AQ and when you are running bad he turns up AA or KK?

Two hands later, AJ in middle. I raise and steal blinds.

68 off in small blind. Button limps in, I complete. Flop has Ace and two low cards. I lead out and bluff the flop. I get called by button. Turn pairs my 8 but I'm done with the hand. I check and button bets. I fold.

Screen name Kirbyred triples up with a set of 5's against top pair, top kicker and the chip leader who had a flush draw. He is new chip leader at table with 20,570. I am just behind with 17,994.

New blinds 200-400 with 50 ante. 1050 in every pot.

A5 off early position. I rasie to 1200 to steal. BB was a small stack and i didn't mind a race if he called. He didn't.

KQ off in small blind. Button just limps. I raise to 2000 and they all fold.

We're at a break. I have 19,344 and I am in 4th place. 2nd and 3rd are at my table. There are 31 left. Next level 250-500 with 50 ante.

2 chip leaders clash and screen name JCmoney wins with a set and busts the other guy. JCmoney now has 38,589 and a big chip lead.

K3 off in cutoff, I steal blinds.

We're in the money now. New level 300-600 and 75 ante.

K7 in cutoff and I steal again. This blind stealing is going almost too well.

I am down to 8600 after calling with KJ offsuit and 4 players in pot. Flop comes out all spades with a Jack. Player to my right leads out small and I put in strong raise. He calls and the next card is another spade. I try to bet about half his stack to see where he is and he raises me all in. Now I think I am forced to call. Of course he has the spades. What the fuck was I thinking here? There is no need for the fancy play. There was probably an 80% chance he called the raise with a spade. Why make the stupid bet on 4th street? Just check it through.

I am probably in all in or double up mode now.

2 tables left. 7134 in chips. Blinds are now 500-100 and 125 ante. Definitely all in or fold.

Folded to me with 37 offsuit in small blind. I can't pull the trigger and I fold.

I get moved to a new table and take BB. I get dealt AJ. Folded to small blind who completes and I raise all in. He turns over A6 and my hand holds up.

Two hands later I get K-10 and go all in. No callers. Very next hand AK and I raise 3x blind and steal blinds again. Now up to 20,143.

AJ suited on bb. Button tries to steal, I reraise all in and take it down. 25,843 now.

More blind stealing and I am up to 30,943 and 6th place. 13 left. Blinds 600-1200 with 150 ante.

Q9 off in small blind. Utg limps. I raise 4k and all fold.

Very next hand I get AK offsuit in button. Folded to cutoff who raises the min. I reraise. He calls. Flop is 8h Js Jh. He checks and I check. Turn is Kh. He bets 14500 which is the size of the pot. I reraise all in. He calls with QJ. Last card is 8 for his full house and I am out in 13th place.

The last hand was a bit unlucky because I would have been much better off without the King or Ace hitting. Of course if the turn was a blank and he checks again, I probably would have bet thinking I still have the best hand.

All that work and I think I only won like $100.

World Series Of Poker Challenge 2006

First let me update the sit n go challenge from earlier. I did not make the $1,000 because I could not play enough tournaments.

Here were my final stats as of 11/15/05:
Tournaments: 124
ROI%: 39.3%
Total Won: $536
Firsts: 18
Seconds: 22
Thirds: 17

Granted it is not a very significant sample size but it did confirm that I am definitely good enough to crush the 10+1's. The bigger question is whether I have the game for the 55's. I had 225 at that level and only a 2% ROI.

Now for the World Series. A couple of weeks ago, Billy was watching the replays of the 2005 WSOP and couldn't believe some of the bad plays he was seeing. Now granted, Billy was only looking at things on a surface level and does not know some of the meta game strategy going on in these events, but basically it was an accurate statement.

Billy then offerred to give me $5,000 to sponsor me 1/2 of the entry into the Main Event in 2006. He figured that I would never play in the tournament on my own and this way he can help a friend's dream come true. Now in order to take this "risk" he wanted a chance at some big rewards down the road. So he said that I would have to pay him 100% of the first 10k in winnings and 60% after that. Plus I would have to pay his way to Vegas. He also put in that if I happen to qualify in a satellite before the event then he would receive 10% of my winnings since I would not have been there in the first place unless he gave me the $5,000 up front.

So in one sense this is a very generous offer. If only 10% of the entrants make money and I figure I am better than at least 50% of the players in the room, then I only have a 1 in 5 chance of making any money at all. If Billy is right, that I would never buy in on my own then this may make sense.

The problem is that I am convinced that I will play in the World Series someday. I think I can qualify via satellite one way or another. This year, I did not really set up a plan for qualifying. I diddled around on the Party Poker Steps but that was it. I also tried to play a one table satellite for one of the smaller tournaments and that ended for me on the first hand with my Aces getting cracked. Most of the time, I was still concentrating on trying to build up my bankroll.

With my conviction about playing someday, I believe I should be entitled to a bigger cut of the money if Billy sponsors me. Robert could not believe that I was turning down a free $5000 for a "once in a lifetime" experience. After further discussion I told Robert that I was willing to bet a large amount of money that within 5 years I will play in the Main Event. We settled on dinner at the Ocean Club. Therefore here is my challenge for 2006.

I will play in the Main Event of the World Series of Poker in 2006.

Here is my plan. The online sites will start running satellites in late May or early June. I will find the best value for the money and attempt to qualify through those. If that doesn't work, I will book at least one weekend trip to Vegas during the preliminary events and play in at least one of their daily live satellites.

In the mean time, I want to build up $3,000 in bankroll specifically for the purpose of qualifying for the the Main Event. That gives me 6 months to build that up. The safest way to do that would be to play on a site exclusively as my WSOP bankroll site. I can keep the rest of my poker bankroll on the other sites and play other games that will keep my interest. My main money making game will probably be the sit-n-go's since I think my win rate is the highest there and the variance is rather low. So I will probably have to choose between Party or Poker Stars for the WSOP quest.

It's Good To Be Lucky

Last Monday Night I went to the Casino AZ for the Monday Night Football promotion.

I quickly found a soft 3-6 Hold'em game. The player in the 9 seat was playing every hand and there were usually 5 or more to the flop. Within the first few hands I hit a set of 5's. I got in a couple of raises and amazingly they held up even with a possible straight and flush on the board. So I was up a quick $50.

Before I walked into the casino, I told myself I was due to have a good session. I psyched myself up and told myself that I would continue to value bet my hands even though I had been getting sucked out on a lot lately. So this was definitely a good start to the night.

After a couple of hours they passed out the number cards for the Patriots v. Colts game on the TV. My card for the whole game had the numbers 1 and 4. These were decent numbers. If I hit them exactly they are worth $400. If the home and away numbers are reversed, I win $200. Luckily enough with about 3 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, the scores were right on my number. Now the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter are good numbers to have, because the teams are not in a hurry to score. If time runs out, they just switch sides of the field and start the other way. At the end of the half and the end of the game, it can get crazy when teams go into their 2 minute offense.

So the Colts had the ball and they had been marching down the field at will, pretty much all game. They had about 70 yards to go with 3 minutes left. Even with a couple of running plays which eat up clock time, they had managed to move down to the 10 yard line with about 20 seconds left. Luckily, Manning over threw his receiver in the endzone and then they ran another running play and the quarter ended with them inside the 10. So my numbers held up and I won $400 ! The Colts scored on the very first play of the 4th Quarter so I really sqweeked out the win.

While the game had been going on, my luck at cards had turned bad again and I had lost my early winnings and even had to dig for an additional $40. Right after my big $400 win, my luck changed again. I won it all back to finish down about $20. The only hand that pissed me off was when I had a suited Ace on the button. There were 5 callers in front of me. I briefly thought about raising to build up the pot, but I decided to be conservative. The blinds came along and there were 8 players in the pot.

The flop had two of my suit. There was a bet from early position and everyone started calling. I decided to raise, figuring that everyone would come along for a pot that big. Almost everyone did, except for an old man who was part senile and actually folded after limping in even though he was getting something like 18-1.

The turn filled up my flush and also put a possible straight out there. I had visions of a big pot, now. Amazingly, everyone checked to me on the button. I bet and everyone folded but two people.

The river was an Ace, so I figured I would at least get a couple of calls. The two players checked and I bet. Amazingly they both folded. I couldn't believe I didn't get any action after the flop. I guess I shouldn't complain about winning a decent size pot. I can't help but wonder if I would have won more money if I had waited until the turn to raise.

My card for the last quarter was 1-1. That meant I was covered pretty well between this card and the card I got at the start of the game. So the Colts went down and scored again and with the extra point the score would be 41-21. But wait! Bill Belicheck checks his coaching card and decides even though there are only 4 minutes left that they need to go for 2 points and make sure they lead by 3 touchdowns. DAMMIT! If they kick the extra point and hold the Patriots scoreless the rest of the game, I would have won an additional $300. After they missed the 2 point conversion, there was no way I could win, so I stacked up my chips and left a $380 winner for the night.

SNG Challenge Update 2

Here are my stats after 67 tournaments:
Net Amount won: $237
ROI%: 31%
Finish In The Money: 44%
Firsts: 9
Seconds: 10
Thirds: 11

I have one week left in my challenge. Obviously the biggest challenge is getting in enough tournaments. Last week was bad as it seemed I had something going on every night last week. This week is more open so I should be able to squeeze some more in.

Basically I have been making $3.53 a tournament which means in order to hit $1,000 in profit I need to play at least 216 more tournaments by the 15th. That is a hefty order.

In the mean time, I am heading to Casino AZ again because that Monday Football promotion brings out all the fishes. And dammit I am going to win one of those numbers again!

Of course if I can get about 100 more tournaments like the following, I will easily make my goal.

Here are some interesting stats from my win:
91 Total Hands
2 times I was dealt AA. It was back to back. The first time I made Quads.
1 time I was dealt KK
6 times in the last 21 hands starting at 200-400 blinds, my starting cards had an Ace in them.

I actually had to come back after I lost a big portion of my stack heads up. When the blinds got to 250-500, I decided I was going to push any 2 since he seemed pretty tight. I caught up quickly and then with A3 suited on the big blind, I called his push all in from the small blind. He had 4c 7d. I hit runner runner flush to beat his 2 pair and I won.

Here's a great example of someone being really stupid on the bubble:

4 players left.
Hero 3930
pikkemand 270
dogbert999 1500
niccchick 1850

pikkemand must have been disconnected. It's been pretty obvious that he has folded the last 10 hands in a row and the folds come lightning fast. He is on my left so luckily the other guys have not totally abused him and I have been able to steal his big blind every time it's folded to me.

The blinds are 150-300 so pikkemand will be all in in 2 hands. He has survived at least 3 other times when all in, so his luck is bound to run out. He survived once when he managed to get a straight against my A-5 with his 5-7.

In this hand I am utg with Qd 10h. Definitely good enough to steal. I raise to 900. pikkemand folds (of course), but Dogbert calls me leaving him 750. Niccchick folds on the BB. So 2100 in the pot.
The flop is perfect for me. 3s 3c 10s. Dogbert checks and I bet enough to put him all in. Now the only way a good player should call here is with A-10, a 3, or a pocket pair higher that 10's. You will only have 750 left if you fold, but the short stack will be all in before you. Plus if he does survive, the next hand he is the small blind to Dogbert's big blind. If no one else plays, he will get his blind back plus pikkemand's who will fold.

Instead Dogbert calls off the rest of his chips with KcQc. What a fool! Of course the poker gods rewarded him for his stupidity, because the Ace of clubs came on the turn picking up 12 additional outs and the river is a Jack of hearts giving the dufus the straight.

Later Dogbert called all in with a flush draw in a 3 way pot with Niccchick and pikkemand. If he folds and pikkemand loses, he locks up 3rd place. Instead he calls. Pikkemand wins the hand with a flush. Niccchick had pocket Kings so he wins the side pot and Dogbert goes out in 4th place. He lost to a guy asleep at the wheel.

SNG Challenge Update 1

My first weekend of play in the Challenge I played 42 tournaments. Here are my relevant stats:

Amount won: $128
ROI%: 27.71%
1st Place: 5
2nd Place: 6
3rd Place: 8
Finish in the Money: 45%

The level of play is much worse than the $55's. There are usually 2 players out by the end of the first 2 levels. That almost never happens at the higher levels. Plus you tend to see much bigger bluffs in the $11's.

Here were some interesting hands:
4 handed, blinds 75-150
I'm BB with 3720
SB is Stu1971 with 1265
Button is 575
UTG is 2215

Obviously the correct play is to play tight here since the button is due to go broke soon. UTG and the button fold and the small blind completes. I have 7-3 offsuit.

The flop is 4d 4h 3s. He checks and I bet 300 which is the amount of the pot. The SB then check raises me all in with a bet of 1190. This seems weird. He could have a 4 but it just doesn't seem very likely. If he did, he would probably just call and slow play it. He could have Ace-3, but I think he would have went all in preflop.

I decide to call because I can afford the chips and it smells like a bluff. He turns over Ad Kd and hits runner runner flush to beat me. OK, bad beat, but I made a good call. Naturally I begin to look for revenge.

Later in the same tournament, it's down to heads up between me and stu1971. He had a big chip lead at the start but I have almost pulled even. He has been playing very conservative and I have been abusing his blinds. I have 3705 and he has 4295. The blinds are 200-400. I have the small blind and the button and I finally get dealt Pocket Aces.

My first instinct was to slow play it. Then I thought that he's probably getting tired of being bullied and maybe he's ready to defend his blind. So I raise to 1200. He falls for the bait and raises all in at 3800. I call quicker than Hugh Grant says yes to a hooker.

He turns over Kd Qc. So he was justified in pushing back. The flop is Kh Ks Th.

He goes on to turn a full house and I am out. I guess this one wasn't meant to be.

The other thing that hampered my returns was the fact that I went on a 7 tournament streak of not cashing. Of course that happened right after I had cashed in 7 straight and got all cocky.

I probably will not get to play the next couple of days because I am going to the casino tonight and playing in a charity poker tournament tomorrow.

This might be tougher than I thought.

SNG Challenge

I've read posts before with these challenges and they have always seemed like fun except, I have a real job and can't play more than 15 hours a week.

So I am going to give myself a smaller one and see if I can get some others to join me.

My goal is to take $200 and play the $11 Sits at Party Poker. I will turn the $200 into $1000 by November 15th. I think I can do it in under 230 tournaments.

I will post this on 2+2 and see if I can get anyone to follow along. Hopefully this will add to the bankroll a little bit as well.

Clarification of Large Tourney Strategy

Just read a decent article on large field tournament strategy. http://www.pocketfives.com/ACA97406-83C6-45EC-B775-5AA30E8EEAE5.aspx

The punctuation is crappy, but I think he makes a lot of sense. Here are the basics:

Early stage: Your goal is to see the flop cheaply and out flop your opponents. You are basically looking for two pair or better and trying to trap your opponents. Bluffs at abandoned pots are ok only if they are done very cheaply.

Middle stage: Play tight solid poker. Raise big cards preflop and if you hit top pair and good kicker, bet big. If you miss, do not bluff. It costs too much money if you are called.

Late stage: Blinds are big and you should be happy just winning them. You want to win all of your hands preflop. Steal in the right spots with good cards. Other players will start getting desperate and it will be easy to chip up quickly if you are picking on the right players.

I have played in these modes at different times in tournaments, but I don't think it was ever quite in that order. This is definitely something I will have to experiment with.

As for my bad run, I have avoided playing poker the last 2 days. On Monday I played 1 $55 sit at Party. My idea was to record every hand and submit it to 2+2 for evaluation. The problem was, it took too long to record my hands and I don't think there is a good way to summarize everything so someone would take the time to read it.

I think the only way to do it is copy my tournament summary into a post with a link to the party poker hand replayer. Then you can just sit back and watch the tournament play out. It may take too long for someone to watch the entire thing, so maybe I could edit out the hands I don't play except for hands where I see someone do something stupid to give my critics some background on my opponents.

The funny thing was, I did not play a hand for the first 3 rounds. I got short stacked and went into all in mode and I was not called the first 5 or 6 times I did it. Then in the middle of writing down the previous hand I was dealt 88. There was a small raise in front of me so the play was all in or fold. I wasn't quite sure that my reraise would be enough to get him to fold. While I am thinking about it, Party Poker timed me out. It did not even go into my timebank!. After it folded me, two other players called and it turned out that the original raiser had 99 and one of the callers had over cards. I would have lost the hand.

The very next hand I was dealt AK and went to bet. Unfortunately it folded me, because I forgot to hit the "I am Back" button. Dammit. I pretty much stopped writing everything down after that.

Somehow I managed to make it in the money by continuing to move all in and winning blinds. I made it to the final two and I was down in chips 2-1. We traded blinds back and forth and then he raised 2x the blind from the button. That seemed weak, so I moved all in with 98 suited. He turned over a pair of tens. I should have remembered from earlier that he raised 2x the blind with a good hand when it was 3 or 4 handed. I should have taken my time. Anyway, the $150 came in handy.

Losing Sucks!

I absolutely hate reading posts from players that complain about a 200 or 300 BB losing streak and wonder what they should do about it. I am not going to write one of those posts.

I will say that I dropped $1500 over the last few days. I was playing 4 tables at a time in 3-6 on the bad beat jackpot tables at Party Poker and the $55 sit and gos. The jackpot was up over $650,000 so I thought it was a smart play to give myself a chance at it.

Was I unlucky? Yes. Could I have played better? Yes.

Now I am forcing myself to move back down to the $33 sits and 2-4 in limit. I am going to limit myself to two tables at a time as well. I also want to play more Omaha 8OB if I can find decent games. There is quite a mental challenge involved in this. There is a strong urge to make my money back as quickly as I lost it. I know that moving down will delay the accomplishment of that goal. However, it should also prevent me from losing any more money.

My main short term goal is to have a fat bankroll for my Wedding in Vegas in December. Since I know there will be at least one or two sessions of black jack or craps, I am going to need some money that, "I can afford to lose."

I think one of the issues I encountered with the 3-6 games over the weekend was game selection. When I could get Poker Tracker to work with Game Time, I seemed to find 2-4 other players at the table that looked pretty good. I didn't have the discipline or the tools to find other softer tables. No matter how many fixes I try, I cannot get Poker Tracker to work in real time. It always freezes up on me after about 45 minutes.

As for Omaha, I think I have finally settled on a preflop strategy. I will only play A2XX or A3XX hands along with 23XX hands if the other two cards give me good cards for a high. I will also play 4 cards over a 9 if there are a lot of players already in the pot. This alone should give me enough of an advantage to make up for lack of skill post flop. I have noticed that players will play absolute crap online. I still need to get better at figuring out when I am drawing to a nut straight, but I am improving. It's a shame that there are hardly any limit tables available in this game, even on Party Poker.

The Best Non Winning Session Ever?

They say that in poker you should concentrate on making the best decision possible in every hand. Money won or lost is outcome based thinking. If you make the correct play, you will win in the long run.

Last night was one of those sessions. I went to the Casino AZ for the Monday Night Football specials. I sat down at the usual loose passibe 4-8 table determined to play tight solid poker. As I said last time, I think I have been trying to mix up things too much in play in the erroneous assumption that my opponents are paying attention. This time I would play tight and solid until they make a move that tells me they are noticing what I am doing.

I did really well in sticking with that strategy. I was patient and even keeled for the 4 hours I was there. I was going to show a profit for the night until I lost the last hand.

I was in middle position with the 5-7 of diamonds. This is not a text book call, but there had been very little preflop raising and at least 5 players seeing every flop so I thought it was a good idea. The flop was 8x-9x-Kd. The small blind bets and there are two more callers before it gets to me. I have an inside straight draw and back door flush draw. I'm getting 8-1 probably 10-1 when the rest of the players call so I am actually getting the correct odds so I call. Using Phil Gordon's 2-4 rule I have 4 6's and give me one out for the back door flush, so 5 outs total. 5 times 4 = 20% chance to win. 5 big bets to the turn.

Everyone calls and the turn is the 10 of diamonds. The small blind checks and everyone checks to the button who bets. The small blind check raises. Two players fold and it's to me. First I try to calculate my pot odds. 8 big bets in pot with one player behind me to act. I have the open end straight draw but the low end for 8 outs. I now have a low flush draw which would be 9-2 = 7 outs. So 15 outs. 15 x 2 = 30% so my odds are ok to call the raise. The button calls with a puzzled look on his face.

The river was a diamond. The small blind bets, and I raise. The button calls and the small blind calls. The button had the 8-9 of diamonds for a bigger flush. He had two pair on the flop. The small blind had top pair and a busted straight draw.

Man I really wanted that pot. But that is the way it went most of the night. I ended the night down $7 and I lost 3 decent pots where I was rivered on the end by someone who played bad cards preflop. I made a couple of really good folds to save myself some money.

On an unrelated topic. I think I am going to by Eastbay's Sit-n-Go power tools to help with my game. It looks like an integrated EV solution for figuring out when to push all in. I still think my biggest weakness is heads up, but maybe if I accumulate more chips in the bubble and in the money stage, I will be able to compensate for it.