Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Some Fun Calculations

I am in the business of numbers and therefore I like to play with them once in a while. Sometimes I like to fantasize that I could play poker for a living. Of course I don't think I could ever do this because I think it could get very boring and frustrating very quickly. But it's nice to dream.

Here's what I've figured out. I can play 60 hands an hour online on one table. Lately I have been able to play 3 tables at one time successfully. I think I could play 4 tables if I added another monitor so I would not have to deal with the overlap. Everybody says long term you can earn 2 BB/100 hands online up to about 5-10.

Right now if I play 180 hands an hour at 2-4 with a 2BB per 100 hands win rate, I make .02 BB per hand or $.08 a hand. That works out to $14.40 an hour. Currently I make over 100k a year but let's say, that is my magic number to live comfortably. Since I work about 35 hours a week and take two weeks vacation, that leaves 35*50 weeks = 1,750 hours in the year. 100,000/1750 = $57.14 an hour.

So let's say that I start 4 tabling and playing 240 hands an hour. I need to make $57.14 / 240 hands = $.238 a hand. At 2 BB per 100 hands that works out to playing $.238*100 = $23.80 per 100 hands. $23.80 / 2 BB = $11.90. So that means I could 4 table at $6-12 35 hours a week and make $100,000 a year. Of course playing 7 hours a day would probably bore me to tears. I would eventually have to get to $15-30. Since $12 is 40% of $30 that means I could do it working 40% of 35 hours which equals 14 hours a week.

Of course there are a couple of problems with this calculation. First is it possible to make 2BB per 100 hands at 15-30 over the long term? Second, by the time I get good enough to play at that level and have the bankroll to play at that level, the poker craze will probably be over and the only ones left playing 15-30 will be other pros trying to eek out a living.


Anonymous said...

Help me Dude, I'm lost.

I was searching for Elvis and somehow ended up in your blog, but you know I'm sure I saw Elvis in the supermarket yesterday.

No honest really, he was right there in front of me, next to the steaks singing "Love me Tender".

He said to me (his lip was only slightly curled) "Boy, you need to get yourself a shiny, new plasmatv to go with that blue suede sofa of yours.

But Elvis said I, In the Ghetto nobody has a plasma tv .

Dude I'm All Shook Up said Elvis. I think I'll have me another cheeseburger then I'm gonna go home and ask Michael Jackson to come round and watch that waaaay cool surfing scene in Apocalypse Now on my new plasma tv .

And then he just walked out of the supermarket singing. . .

"You give me love and consolation,
You give me strength to carry on "

Strange day or what? :-)

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